Everything To Play For
The shape of the consistently shifting Big Ten with one week left in the regular season
I want to say at the top here, I’m looking for a good alternative to move from Substack. There is baggage here I was, frankly, unaware of, which is my fault but I am aware of it now. On top of that, Substack’s CEO has now also recently chosen to praise the efforts of Elon Musk who, in full transparency with you dear reader, I think is a truly evil human being.
I will keep you all posted on where, when and what that will look like — I may wait until the offseason which somehow is only about six weeks away — but I hope to find a good solution in the near future.
ANYWAY, HOOPS.
The No. 1 seed, double bye, bye and overall qualification for the Big Ten Tournament remains up for grabs with under one week to play, along with over a dozen teams vying to make or raise their seed for the NCAA Tournament.
So, not much to discuss really.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
Top-To-Bottom Lunacy
When preparing to write Hoopla, I usually take a look back at the schedule from the past week and write down any game that felt significant in one way or another. This is often a handful of games that rose to the top during the week that I would like to mention in some form here.
Here is the current state of the Big Ten, as of games through Feb. 23:
On records alone, so much can change as teams play their final 1-2 games this week. But the tiebreakers, as well as who plays who to end the year, has ensured that all 18 teams still have something to play for.
Battle for the 1 Seed
USC (15-1)
UCLA (14-1)
Going from top to bottom of the standings, the future Big Ten regular season champion’s path to resolution is nice and straightforward for both teams involved. Thanks to Iowa’s upset over the USC, as long as UCLA beats Wisconsin on Wednesday, there will be an outright winner of this 1-seed battle. Why? Because the two California schools will meet again on Saturday night in a rubber match, this time taking place on UCLA’s home court.
If USC wins, it will take the No. 1 seed and likely will lock up a NCAA Tournament 1-seed with a pair of victories over UCLA. The Bruins would also be near impossible to argue as a 1-seed if their only current loss, at USC, was avenged. Regardless, the Big Ten Tournament’s 1 seed is very likely going to be decided in the best way possible, on the court in a winner-take-all matchup.
Battle for the Double Bye
Ohio State (12-4)
Games Remaining: Michigan State, at Maryland
Maryland (11-5)
Games Remaining: at Indiana, Ohio State
Illinois (11-6)
Games Remaining: Michigan
Michigan (10-6)
Games Remaining: Iowa, at Illinois
Michigan State (10-6)
Games Remaining: at Ohio State, Minnesota
Two of these teams will join UCLA and USC in having a break until Friday. Oregon and Indiana are still in the mix to pass some of these teams with a strong final week, but with 11 max wins and poor tiebreaker records against most of these teams, I’m fairly certain they are both out for finishing top four.
You’ll notice that all five of these teams also get the opportunity to play one of the other teams battling for this second bye, including Ohio State who will get to do so twice. These games are among the most significant of the week, as wins against these fellow Quad 1-2 teams will boost each of their seeding chances in the NCAA Tournament.
It will also be important if more than two of these teams are tied come Monday morning, as the head-to-head record will then be less cut and dry.
Head-to-Head
Ohio State: 3-0 (Wins: Maryland, Illinois, Michigan | Losses: None)
Maryland: 2-2 (Wins: Michigan, Michigan State | Losses: Illinois, Ohio State)
Illinois: 1-2 (Wins: Maryland | Losses: Michigan State, Ohio State)
Michigan: 1-3 (Wins: Michigan State | Losses: Maryland, Michigan State, Ohio State)
Michigan State: 2-2 (Wins: Illinois, Michigan | Losses: Maryland, Michigan)
Any way you slice it, Ohio State has the most control of its fate. A win in either of the Buckeyes’ final two matchups will seal a double bye, but even an 0-2 week can be saved if Michigan State falls to Minnesota. But if the Spartans go 2-0 to match Ohio State’s 0-2, both the Terps and Spartans would move ahead of the Buckeyes for the final two slots.
Maryland is in the next most control, and would be a lock with a 2-0 week, but matchups at Indiana and home against the Buckeyes make that hard to expect. Even one win will put the Terps in solid position, but it would then depend heavily on the Illinois vs. Michigan result. The Illini took down the Terps and hold the permanent tiebreaker against them if just those two teams are tied.
Illinois won eight straight games to move into the top four, but an 0-2 California trip brought them below the line again and now makes the Illini vulnerable to a drop further. As said above, so much is on the line based on this Michigan game. The Wolverines must deal with Iowa first, but if they manage to do so, they would be a final day win, a Maryland loss to Indiana and a 2-0 Ohio State week away from sneaking their way all the way up to the fourth seed, and would do so with a three-freshman starting lineup.
That’s the Michigan angle, at least! Michigan State fans, who likely don’t need extra incentive to root against the Wolverines, should be rooting specifically hard against the Wolverines. The Spartans only technically sit under Michigan in the rankings for now via Michigan’s 0-0 record against Illinois being “even” to Michigan State’s victory over the Illini. That said, Michigan State has to go 2-0 to make the climb to No. 4, which would include beating Ohio State in Columbus. That win would also pay huge dividends in various tiebreaker scenarios as the best victory among these teams.
Battle for a Bye
Michigan (10-6)
Games Remaining: Iowa, at Illinois
Michigan State (10-6)
Games Remaining: at Ohio State, Minnesota
Oregon (10-7)
Games Remaining: at Washington
Indiana (9-7)
Games Remaining: Maryland, at Purdue
Nebraska (9-8)
Games Remaining: at Northwestern
Iowa (8-8)
Games Remaining: at Michigan, Wisconsin
Minnesota (8-8)
Games Remaining: Washington, at Michigan State
Four of these seven teams will get a Wednesday of rest for the Big Ten tourney, and 11 wins is the clear magic number that would take out any complication from the situation. If Michigan and Michigan State win one of their two games and if Oregon and Indiana win out, they will remain among the top nine seeds no matter what.
But if even one of those teams falls to 10-8, welcome to the chaos zone.
Head-to-Head
Michigan: 5-1 (Wins: Indiana, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Oregon | Losses: Michigan State)
Michigan State: 3-3 (Wins: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan | Losses: Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon)
Oregon: 4-2 (Wins: Indiana, Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota | Losses: Michigan, Nebraska)
Indiana: 2-4 (Wins: Iowa, Nebraska | Losses: Michigan, Michigan State, Minnesota, Oregon)
Nebraska: 4-3 (Wins: Iowa, Michigan State, Minnesota, Oregon | Losses: Iowa, Indiana, Michigan)
Iowa: 2-4 (Wins: Minnesota, Nebraska | Losses: Indiana, Michigan State, Nebraska, Oregon)
Minnesota: 1-4 (Wins: Indiana | Losses: Iowa, Michigan, Nebraska, Oregon)
If Iowa beats Michigan and Minnesota beats Michigan State, there is a world in which all seven of these teams *could* finish 10-8 in the Big Ten. If that, or anything near that, is the case, these head-to-head matchups will be of extreme importance, and if not I at least brought it all together to you to make it interesting.
There is also the added potential tiebreaker, if head-to-head can’t resolve it, of best win within the conference, which would give Iowa the ultimate advantage with their victory over USC.
One week out, the Top 9 battle is really a choose-your-own-adventure situation for what you could be rooting for. You could take the blue pill and have a very stress-free final weekend where Oregon, Indiana and the Michigan teams get to 11 wins. But me personally, I would like to take the red pill and see how far into the head-to-head rabbit hole we can go.
Washington
Washington (7-9)
Games Remaining: at Minnesota, Oregon
Washington.
The Huskies cannot earn a bye in the Big Ten Tournament. They also cannot miss out on the Big Ten Tournament. As they have done much of this season, Washington exists in its own confusing realm, but one thing is clear in this world: EVERY game matters.
Washington is as bubble as bubble gets for the NCAA Tournament, and the 21-point road win over Nebraska made it clear that the Huskies will not leave the tournament conversation at any point before Selection Sunday.
Washington has two matchups that are extremely winnable, but by no means are easy ones. Minnesota and Oregon, as stated above, have plenty to play for both regarding in-conference stakes and the NCAA Tournament, but these games would also be significant résumé boosters for the Huskies.
As of this morning, ESPN has Washington among the Last Four In, next to Iowa State, Harvard and Virginia Tech. Princeton, South Florida, Saint Joseph’s and Arizona are listed as the Next Four Out. Those are the key teams to watch for and root against for the Big Ten to get 13 teams in. Yes I know, this is pure greed, but Washington is a chaos ball team and I would love to see them get a chance to make some noise.
Battle to Qualify
Wisconsin (4-12)
Games Remaining: UCLA, at Iowa
Northwestern (2-13)
Games Remaining: Nebraska
Purdue (2-14)
Games Remaining: at Penn State, Indiana
Rutgers (2-15)
Games Remaining: Penn State
Penn State (1-15)
Games Remaining: Purdue, at Rutgers
Only two of these teams will be involved in the Big Ten Tournament, and one of them is going to be Wisconsin. With a win over Northwestern last week, the Badgers are at four victories with only one team — Purdue — capable of reaching that total. So, even with a 2-0 week for the Boilermakers, the lowest Wisconsin can finish is 15th.
Northwestern currently holds the final spot after a pivotal road victory against the Scarlet Knights. Thanks to less losses in a circumstance out of their control, the Wildcats do hold the win percentage tiebreaker that will take precedence over any head-to-head situation. That said, a home game against the Cornhuskers who are hungry for a win after being embarrassed by Washington is not the easiest situation to get win No. 3, so their fates may be decided by those around them.
They are currently in last place, but Penn State still has everything to play for thanks to how the schedule has played out. Ending the season with matchups against the Boilermakers and Scarlet Knights means that two wins and a Nebraska loss will get the Nittany Lions to Indianapolis. Penn State has played Rutgers once this season and lost, but will hold the secondary tiebreaker if they can split the series thanks to their only conference win of the season: A stunner against Ohio State.
Purdue can thwart the Penn State dream with a road win Thursday. A loss to Rutgers in early February could cause real issues in a tiebreaker situation, but the Boilermakers will also have a final chance at glory against in-state rival Indiana at home.
Finally, Rutgers, who had a tough 0-3 week, all losses by double digits. Finishing the year 2-0 against Penn State very well could sneak the Scarlet Knights into the top 15, but the top-end talent on this roster makes it feel a bit disappointing that it’s even up for debate at this point in the season.
Prediction
Here is what I think the standings will look like on Monday, based on a whole lot of vibes:
UCLA
USC
Ohio State
Illinois
Maryland
Michigan State
Michigan
Indiana
Nebraska
Oregon
Iowa
Minnesota
Washington
Wisconsin
Penn State
Northwestern
Rutgers
Purdue
I have Maryland and Illinois both finishing at 12-6 with the Illini earning the double bye on the tiebreaker, the same goes with Nebraska getting the bye over Oregon and both finishing 10-8. Finally, I do think Penn State will win both of their final games to sneak into that final spot. Rutgers had prime opportunities last week and squandered them, and I think the Nittany Lions are a talented enough bunch to get it done.
Mred has made a fantastic website to map out all of the tiebreakers and head-to-head possibilities, so please check that out and let me know what you expect to happen in this final week.
Photo Credit: Scott Eklund/Red Box Pictures via Washington Athletics
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