Top-To-Bottom Lunacy
Looking back at a ridiculous week of games, then ahead at the Big Ten Tournament bubble
When preparing to write Hoopla, I usually take a look back at the schedule from the past week and write down any game that felt significant in one way or another. This is often a handful of games that rose to the top during the week that I would like to mention in some form here.
This week I wrote down 10 games and already had an entirely different plan on what to talk about, so please forgive me if I fail to mention a game that was significant in your eyes. It was just that kind of week.
Also! This Hoopla does not involve the apparently ridiculous game between Ohio State and Iowa that happened this afternoon. My quick thoughts while looking at that box score: Ohio State please be normal just one time.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
So UCLA and USC sure did play last week!
What a game this was. USC came out swinging in front of their home crowd, JuJu Watkins broke out of her cold shooting slump with a barrage of early threes taken with supreme confidence and the Trojans threatened to take control before the Bruins could even catch their breath.
Well as it turns out, the then-undefeated Bruins are a pretty good team, and they fully erased a double-digit deficit before it even reached halftime. UCLA then had the lead after three quarters, 52-47.
USC’s defense showed up in all of its glory in that fourth quarter. The Bruins were held to eight total points in the frame. Watkins, who kept the Trojans in the game almost singlehandedly with her shotmaking through the first 30 minutes, came through with eight points and *five* blocks in the fourth. USC outscore the Bruins by 16 to win the game 71-60.
JuJu Watkins is the best player in the Big Ten, that cannot be currently denied. 38 points. 11 rebounds. 5 assists. 8 blocks. 6 of 9 from three. Against No. 1 UCLA. That’s what a transcendent superstar does.
The 11-point final margin does not do this game justice. This was a fiery matchup between two national title contenders that went down to the final minutes of the game. UCLA completely shut out every non-JuJu Trojan for about 35 minutes of this matchup before Kiki Iriafen finally found some space on the interior with some big late buckets. Lauren Betts (18 pts, 13 reb) and Kiki Rice (15 pts, 6 ast) had strong showings, but it wasn’t quite enough.
USC now holds the No. 1 seed in the Big Ten, at least until these two play again on UCLA’s home floor in March. I will be counting down the days until we can be blessed to see these teams play again.
As I said, this was a week in the Big Ten. Here’s a quick recap of the non USC-UCLA game happenings:
Ohio State survived a massive Minnesota comeback to win in OT
Nebraska beat Maryland by 20 on the road
Michigan beat Indiana by 3
Oregon beat Washington by 1, then beat Minnesota by 6 on the road
Both USC AND UCLA nearly lost immediately after their game
USC survived against Washington by 5
UCLA survived against Michigan State without Lauren Betts by 6
All of those are significant results in some form to the bubble watching I posted about last Tuesday. We, however, have other bubbles to discuss.
As said 800,000 times on here, the Big Ten has 18 teams now. The Big Ten Tournament, however, will only add one more spot to the usual bracket, giving 15 teams an opportunity to earn an automatic NCAA Tournament bid while three teams are forced to watch from home.
There are also the other usual important scenarios to consider: The Top 4 seeds earn a double bye and seeds 5-8 at least skip the first day. All of it is truly up for grabs, but I will be focusing on the teams fighting to make the tourney here. If interested though, a great rundown of the current Double Bye madness is over on Dream B1G to cover all of your bases.
I discussed the situation for 13 teams last week, including Washington, who suffered two agonizingly close losses to fall to 5-9 in the Big Ten. The Huskies are not quite in danger of missing out on the Big Ten Tournament yet, because the bottom five teams in the conference are, well they are at war.
Current Big Ten Standings (Nos. 13-18)
13.) Washington: 5-9 (4 games left)
14.) Wisconsin: 3-12 (3)
15.) Rutgers: 2-12 (4)
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16.) Purdue: 2-12 (4)
17.) Northwestern: 1-11 (4)
18.) Penn State: 1-14 (3)
Wisconsin, Rutgers, Purdue, Northwestern and Penn State have struggled mightily to find wins against their conference foes, but all five still have a real chance at getting to Indianapolis with big wins down the stretch, and that’s because of the tiebreakers.
Tiebreaker Rules
Results of head-to-head competition during the regular season.
Each team's record vs. the team occupying the highest position in the final regular-season standings, continuing down through the standings until one team gains an advantage.
Since each Big Ten team only plays a one team twice during the conference slate, the second tiebreaker is only relevant to Penn State and Rutgers, who play each other twice and still have a chance to split their matchups.
Here’s each of those five teams again with the tiebreakers in mind:
14.) Wisconsin (3-12)
Against Bottom 5: Win over Rutgers, Loss to Purdue, Win over Penn State
Remaining Schedule: Northwestern, UCLA, at Iowa
The Badgers have not had the season they hoped for, but they remain in the best position of these five teams to get into the Big Ten Tournament field. The Purdue loss could cause issues, but if the Badgers can handle business at home against the Wildcats, four Big Ten wins and three won tiebreakers should make it a near lock.
Halle Douglass and Ronnie Porter stepped up in a big way this past weekend to get Wisconsin the edge over the Nittany Lions. If they can continue to help take some of the burden off Serah Williams, the Badgers also are the most dangerous unit in this lower tier, and could be a harder out than the record shows.
15.) Rutgers (2-12)
Against Bottom 5: Loss to Wisconsin, Win over Purdue, Win over Penn State
Remaining Schedule: Northwestern, at Washington, at Oregon, Penn State
Best B1G Win: Purdue
The Scarlet Knights hold the final tournament spot thanks to a 78-69 victory over the Boilermakers on Feb. 9. Thanks to a generous end to the schedule, Rutgers also feels like it has the most control over its destiny.
A pair of home games against fellow competitors is a massive advantage working for this Rutgers team, who in general has also shown the most fight of any of these teams overall in the past month. There’s some real talent in this lineup headlined by freshman Kiyomi McMiller and veteran Destiny Adams, and tonight’s matchup with Northwestern will tell us a lot about the chances these two teams have of seeing postseason play.
While Rutgers has a lot of control, if they come back from the West Coast trip with only three wins, that final Penn State game could come with everything on the line.
16.) Purdue (2-12)
Against Bottom 5: Win over Wisconsin, Loss to Rutgers, Win over Northwestern
Remaining Schedule: Minnesota, at Ohio State, at Penn State, Indiana
It’s been a very tough road for this Purdue team that has felt like it's in an extended transition period for the past two seasons. The Boilermakers didn’t earn their first win of 2025 until early February, but come into this pivotal stretch with two wins in their last four games.
Purdue’s struggles defensively have hurt what has been a pretty well-rounded attack that includes some solid shooters and a really impressive defensive guard in Destini Lombard (2.1 SPG), but Katie Geralds has been able to find a fire in her rosters before and I won’t count out this unit pushing hard for one of these final spots.
Beating Wisconsin could be significant if the Badgers falter to Northwestern. It will still depend on the Boilermakers finding at least one late victory though, with a visit to Penn State or a home battle with Minnesota feeling like the most likely chances.
17.) Northwestern (1-11)
Against Bottom 5: Loss to Purdue, Win over Penn State
Remaining Schedule: at Rutgers, vs. Maryland, at Wisconsin, vs. Nebraska
Northwestern also didn’t get a win in 2015 until February, when it took down the Nittany Lions by six. If non-conference wins counted though, that Utah win should have them going straight to the bank.
The Wildcats struggle on defense, make some of the fewest amounts of threes in the country and shoot below 70 percent from the free throw line. Where they shine is ball movement, and Northwestern can use that advantage specifically against teams like Rutgers and Wisconsin that struggle to contain it.
Northwestern also has one other thing working in its favor, but it sounds wrong to label it as an “advantage” even if that’s what it’s become. The Wildcats are going to end this season with 16 Big Ten games played, as they elected not to travel to face USC and UCLA during the California wildfires.
Basketball aside, this was an extremely rational decision to make for player safety and I don’t think the decision was made for any other reason. That said, it may just happen to be a big assist to not have two very likely losses on the résumé with all of these tiebreakers impacting the rest of the bottom five.
If Northwestern has the same amount of wins as anyone in this group, Northwestern will have the tiebreaker via win percentage. That means the Wildcats are two wins against Rutgers and Wisconsin away from making quite a final push toward Indy.
18.) Penn State (1-14)
Against Bottom 5: Loss to Wisconsin, Loss to Rutgers, Loss to Northwestern
Remaining Schedule: at Michigan, Purdue, at Rutgers
Best B1G Win: Ohio State
Penn State is in the most trouble and has the furthest hole to dig out of to make it into the field with just a single victory in 15 Big Ten games. They do, however, have a chance thanks to a chance at redemption against the Scarlet Knights that would automatically give them the tiebreaker thanks to that magical victory over Ohio State last month.
The Nittany Lions must go 2-1 at worst, likely wins over Rutgers and Purdue, to have a chance. Three Big Ten wins and a tiebreaker over the Scarlet Knights and Boilermakers would leave it up to Rutgers to get to four wins or for Northwestern to get to three, neither of which would be likely based on results thus far.
Penn State has talent, and I think Gracie Merkle was a truly excellent addition. Somehow, despite the worst record of the bunch, I find myself thinking the Nittany Lions may really be able to get out of the hole and enter the field by March.
Photo Credit: Purdue Women’s Basketball (@PurdueWBB), Twitter
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