Eyes On The Middle
Ohio State locks up the 1 seed while the middle of the Big Ten remains chaotic
Not to be cliché, but where has the time gone?
All of a sudden, we have one week left in the regular season. The Big Ten Tournament starts in nine days. And still, so much is left to play for.
What is locked in, however, is the top seed. Ohio State made sure of that Sunday.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
The Buckeyes’ 13-point win over Maryland on Sunday was the team’s 14th in a row. They haven’t lost a game in 2024, and the last five wins have all been by 13 points or more.
The win moved Ohio State’s in-conference record to 15-1, a full two games ahead of Iowa and Indiana with two games to play. The Buckeyes have a 2-0 record against those teams currently, while the Hawkeyes and Hoosiers are both 1-2 against Ohio State and each other.
Based on the tournament tiebreakers, the Buckeyes have fully clinched the top seed and a share of the Big Ten title. They need to win one of their final two games to earn a full regular season title, but both of those final games have significant intrigue. The first is at home against Michigan, and while Ohio State will be heavily favored, the Wolverines are also the Buckeyes’ only Big Ten loss on the season. If that’s a loss, it will come down to the final day, when Ohio State travels for a rematch against Iowa. No matter what, that game holds major significance for two teams vying for NCAA Tournament 1 seeds, but the Big Ten crown may be locked up before tipoff.
Iowa’s route to a share of the title is easy: win both games and hope Ohio State slips up against Michigan again. The Hoosiers can make it a three-team share if all of that happens along with a 2-0 Indiana week. It’s not fully decided at the top, but it’s much closer to set than the middle of the conference.
Did I mention how the Hoosiers are even in this race at all?
After an unbelievable 20-point loss to Illinois mere hours after last week’s Hoopla posted, the Hoosiers felt closer to the rest of the Big Ten than it did to the Buckeyes or Hawkeyes. But on Thursday, Indiana played its best 40 minutes of basketball all season, getting revenge at home against Iowa in an 86-69 win.
Following a tight first quarter, Indiana really turned on the gas in the second and continued to take charge throughout the rest of the game. It took an incredible, relentless defensive effort from the Hoosiers to keep Iowa in check, but they did it well, holding the Hawkeyes to 47 points in the final three quarters.
Caitlin Clark was much of her excellent self in the first half, but Indiana completely locked her down from there: Clark was 2-of-13 with four points in the last 20 minutes.
This win meant everything to Indiana, who was on the outside looking in for earning home games in March prior. It also meant everything to beat Iowa specifically, a team that blew out the Hoosiers earlier this season and won on that outrageous Clark buzzer-beater to end last year’s regular season.
This game felt different than any other in the Big Ten, and I mean that. These two teams have some real fire when they play each other, and it’s such an awesome viewing experience to witness that. It was intense, there were words exchanged, but above all, it was fiery, passionate basketball and it was an absolute delight. I hope these two meet again.
Separation From The Pack
Most of the Big Ten season has felt like the three teams at the top, then a tier with 6-to-7 teams all vying to get that final double bye for the Big Ten Tournament. Recently, a pair of teams have separated from the group and created their own tier.
I feel confident in saying that Michigan State and Nebraska are going to the NCAA Tournament. The Spartans and Cornhuskers have continued their strong play down the stretch and, despite not breaking through to the top tier of the conference, have continually proved to be a notch above the rest of the Big Ten.
These two are locked in a battle for that double bye, but Nebraska holds the advantage entering the final week. The Cornhuskers are up 0.5 games with an 11-6 record and a road contest against Illinois left to go. They also beat the Spartans in the teams’ only matchup all the way back on Dec. 9.
Michigan State can take the 4-seed with wins against the Illini at home and at Wisconsin if Nebraska also loses its matchup with Illinois. At 10-6, this has already been a wonderful first year for head coach Robyn Fralick, and she deserves some serious consideration for Big Ten Coach of the Year.
Another note on Nebraska from last week, but not from on the court. A lawsuit against the school surrounding the dismissal of former Cornhuskers guard Ashley Scoggin and assistant coach Chuck Love was filed by Scoggin last week. It alleges some, in my opinion, extremely concerning actions taken by the Nebraska program and head coach Amy Williams.
The report, and full lawsuit, can be read on Defector. Nebraska has denied these claims, but the allegations stated in the lawsuit are important, and I wanted to make sure it was seen for those who missed the news drop.
The Bubble
With those top five teams safe (in my opinion) from the largest of stresses when it comes to getting into the Field of 68, that leaves three teams that are as on the bubble as you could ever wish to be, as well as two other hopefuls that are running out of time.
Four of these teams — Michigan, Maryland, Penn State, and Illinois — are all separated by one game in the conference standings at either 8-8 (UM, MD) or 7-9 (PSU, ILL).
As far as Big Ten teams go, no four teams have a more important week ahead than these four. Here’s a look at their résumés, in order of conference standings, with opponent NET ratings in parentheses:
Michigan: 8-8 Big Ten | 17-11 Overall | 52 NET | at Ohio State (8), vs. Purdue (70)
Maryland: 8-8 Big Ten | 16-11 Overall | 32 NET | vs. Wisconsin (122), at Indiana (13)
Penn State: 7-9 Big Ten | 16-11 Overall | 31 NET | at Purdue (70), vs. Minnesota (53)
Illinois: 7-9 Big Ten | 13-13 Overall | 44 NET | at Michigan State (22), vs. Nebraska (28)
The non-Illinois teams here are hovering right around that bubble and really need to finish strong heading into the conference tournament. The Illini basically needs a 2-0 week here to get into that conversation, but that Indiana win certainly helped.
Michigan and Maryland have extremely similar weeks: a home matchup against a bottom-five team in the conference and a road game against a top-three one. If both go 1-1 on the week, not much changes and they enter the Big Ten tournament pretty solidly on the bubble. A 2-0, or conversely, 0-2 week would drastically change things.
Of these two teams, I think the Terps are in better shape. Their NET is significantly higher thanks to an extremely difficult schedule, and I expect them to stay in the tournament picture pending an 0-2 week here or an immediate exit next week.
The Wolverines will always have that Ohio State win as a key, key boost, but a season sweep of the Buckeyes may just lock this team into the field. That’s an extremely difficult task, but it could be the only thing that makes Michigan safe.
I would like to again talk about Penn State, who is still winless in February. Yes, the 13-point defeat to the Buckeyes is not the end of the world, but packaged on the end of a six-game losing streak makes it sting all the same.
The Nittany Lions have two winnable games to end the regular season on a high and maybe save their spot in the Big Dance, but this team needs to find itself again to do it. Purdue is a feisty team at home and Minnesota, similarly, is hanging onto its last-ditch tournament hopes.
Makenna Marisa played 12 minutes against Ohio State and was 0-3 from the field with four turnovers. She hasn’t looked quite like the star we are used to following the return from her injury, but Penn State needs her to find a little of that magic. Ashley Owusu had 22 points in the Ohio State loss, but the offense is also stagnating with her at the helm, at least in comparison to that six-game winning streak.
It’s not over for these Lions, their record is still strong enough to get consideration, and they have maintained a solid NET rating despite the slide. But they have to get wins this week, they have to.
What To Watch
Folks, just about all of it.
There are 12 total games left in the Big Ten’s regular season, and I marked down eight of them as significant.
Penn State at Purdue, 2/28 (Wednesday), 7 p.m., B1G+
Did I mention Penn State could really use two wins this week? To avoid a winless February, the Nittany Lions have to go into West Lafayette and take down a Purdue team much better than its record suggests. Purdue is a veteran team that had higher aspirations for this year, and this is a great opportunity for the Boilermakers to go out on a high at home.
Michigan at Ohio State, 2/28 (Wednesday), 7 p.m., Peacock
Ohio State can clinch the regular season title at home, and Michigan could get a unfathomably important season sweep of the Buckeyes to help its NCAA Tournament case. Ohio State has been out-of-this-world good lately, but the Wolverines are playing with more desperation here. What a way to fire up this rivalry that’s well-established in football but merely budding over here.
Illinois at Michigan State, 2/29 (Thursday), 8 p.m., BTN
One of two must-win games for the Illini to get talked about as a potential tourney hopeful. They need every win they can get, and this one would be a Quad 1 win, if quadrants is your thing. I also love the way both of these teams play, so this will be a stylistic delight to watch as well.
The Final Day (Sunday, March 3)
Ohio State at Iowa, 1 p.m., FOX
All 14 teams are in action Sunday, and we start the day with either a battle for a share of the regular season title or an extremely important matchup for two teams that could earn 1-seed lines in a few weeks. I mean, it’s Ohio State against Iowa, do I really need to hype it up?
Also, am I experiencing déjà vu with Iowa here? Last year, the Hawkeyes lost in a blowout on the road to a top Big Ten team (Maryland), then played the Big Ten’s No. 1 seed at home on the final day of the regular season (Indiana) before ultimately winning that game, the Big Ten Tournament and making it to the national title game. If Iowa beats Ohio State… all I’m saying is that’s a whole lot of similarities.
Minnesota at Penn State, 1 p.m., B1G+
Two teams that, thanks largely to injury misfortune, have majorly slumped to end the season, but both teams still have a chance at some postseason noise and really need this one. The Nittany Lions are more in control of their fates, but Minnesota has won a game more recently (as of writing this).
Maryland at Indiana, 3 p.m., Peacock
The Terps were rolling ahead of the Ohio State loss, but they also lost a third player — Lavender Briggs — to a season-ending injury. A win here would likely lock them in to a tourney spot, but the Hoosiers still absolutely need this to stay a Top-4 seed and get home games.
Nebraska at Illinois, 4 p.m., BTN
As said above, must-win games this week for the Illini, and Nebraska, I’m sure, would love that double bye. It would also love to be a higher seed in the NCAA Tournament. Like Michigan State, this should be a fun viewing experience to go along with the high stakes involved.
Purdue at Michigan, 7 p.m., FS1
With the rest of the conference decided, Michigan and Purdue will have the final say on the Big Ten Tournament order. The Boilermakers could rise to earn a single bye with a strong final week, and Michigan would like to stay top six so it can play an opponent off a back-to-back. And, as said above, the Wolverines are maybe the most on the bubble team in the country, so wins are a little important.
One final week in the regular season. Once that’s settled, I’ll be back with you on Monday and, probably, Wednesday for posts on end-of-season awards and tournament predictions. It’s about that time, everyone.
Photo Credits: Penn State Athletics; Michigan State Women’s Basketball, (@MSU_WBasketball), Twitter/X
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