Hoopla Tournament Preview: Deep Run Contenders
A look at the paths for Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, and Ohio State
This is the second half of my two-part look at what I’m expecting from the Big Ten teams left in postseason play. Here, I’ll look at potential tournament routes, team strengths and weaknesses, and give a prediction for how far each team can go.
Part one focused on the lower-seeded NCAA Tournament teams, as well as brief looks at the WBIT and WNIT. You can read that with the link below:
Also, as another reminder, JOIN MY WOMEN’S TOURNAMENT CHALLENGE.
The prizes this year include what has been done in the past: That anybody who finishes better than me in the group — both in the overall standings and in properly selecting where Big Ten teams fall — will be shouted out in a future Hoopla.
But this year, I will also have prizes to Homefield Apparel for the top three. Second and third place in this year’s group will win $20 and $10 gift cards, respectively, while first place gets a free Homefield shirt of their choosing.
So, make sure you enter my group and make your bracket name something SAFE FOR WORK that I can read out in a Hoopla if you beat me.
Indiana
4-seed, Albany 1 Region
Matchup: Fairfield, 3/23, 1:30 p.m.
1-3 seeds: South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon State
The Hoosiers got their home games, which I think are absolutely deserved. But, it comes with a cost: The South Carolina region.
Strengths
Indiana’s offense is outrageously efficient, with its 1.21 points per scoring attempt and 1.00 points per play both ranking second in the nation. That’s because these Hoosiers can *shoot* with a NCAA-leading 51.0% field goal percentage and 40.2% three-point percentage.
Teri Moren’s team shoots so well because it moves the ball around so well. Indiana ranks 15th with 18.3 assists per game, while also placing 39th with 13.3 turnovers per game.
The star of the show remains the same: Mackenzie Holmes (20.0 PPG/6.9 RPG/66.7 FG%), who has the sixth-best shooting percentage in the country and is absolutely dominant inside. Her defensive, while not DPOY good like last year, remains excellent, but it’s her post moves and ability to find space for easy buckets that is truly world class.
The rest of Indiana’s starting lineup is critical though, namely Sara Scalia (16.2 PPG/43.2 3PT%) and Chloe Moore-McNeil (10.1 PPG/4.9 APG), the team’s most prolific shooter and passer, respectively. Yarden Garzon (11.6 PPG/43.8 3PT%) and Sydney Parrish (10.2 PPG/6.0 RPG/39.6 3PT%) are just a few more knockdown threats that both have incredible size for guards, making them tough matchups on both sides of the ball.
Indiana has the size to matchup well with just about anyone defensively, even without eye-popping numbers on that side of the ball this season.
Weaknesses
Despite that size at guard, the Hoosiers don’t have a knack for forcing turnovers, ranking 274th and 278th with 6.4 steals and 14.0 turnovers against per game.
Indiana is a solid rebounding team overall (52.7% rate, 73rd), but are among the worst offensive rebounding teams in the country, averaging just 7.7 per game, 12th-worst in the NCAA.
The Hoosiers have also struggled on occasion to bounce back from a tough start or stretch in a game. When they lose, they’ve often lost big: Outside of a 74-69 loss to Ohio State, Indiana’s losses are by 13, 20, 27 and 32 points. And that 13-point defeat came on the back of a 48-18 run by Michigan in the second half.
The big thing to watch for Indiana is the health of both Holmes and backup forward Lilly Meister, who were each battling injuries during the Big Ten Tournament. Both saw action in that game, which is a positive sign, but they could face minutes restrictions early on.
Tournament Path
The 31-1 Fairfield Stags are going to be a hot upset pick over the Hoosiers based on record alone, and I do get it. Their one loss is a three-point road defeat to Vanderbilt, a NCAA Tournament play-in team, and it came on Nov. 12. Since then? 30 wins in a row.
Fairfield is a great shooting team from the interior, love to fire the three ball, and are excellent defensively, holding opponents to 0.69 points per play, fourth-best in the country. They are prone to fouling and to turnovers, though, and have not faced a lot of high-end competition.
The Stags can pull the upset if those threes are falling, but Indiana is such a strong, well-rounded team, and the early Big Ten Tournament loss has to be even more fuel to add to the early NCAA Tournament exit last season. Advancing would get the Hoosiers either Oklahoma or Florida Gulf Coast, the latter of which is often a winner from the underdog spot. The Sooners are a solid team, but I think Indiana is stronger overall and has the home crowd, and really should get to the Sweet 16 if it passes the Fairfield test.
That’s where South Carolina will probably be, unfortunately. Indiana’s length could disrupt some of what the Gamecocks want to do, but Holmes would have to have a mammoth performance against Kamilla Cardoso to make this happen. It’s not impossible, and I think Indiana is better than its seed, but the Gamecocks are undefeated for a reason, and I expect the road to end there.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Iowa
1-seed, Albany 2 Region
Matchup: Winner of UT Martin/Holy Cross, 3/23, 3 p.m.
2-4 seeds: UCLA, LSU, Kansas State
The Hawkeyes earned the No. 2 overall seed, but like many have said already, it sure doesn’t feel like it with the path ahead of them.
Strengths
Well, for starters, the best player in college basketball.
I know it can get old talking about Caitlin Clark, but this is the section to do those type of things, so let me map it out once again. Clark leads the country in points per game (31.9) by 4.9. She leads the country in assists per game (8.9) by 1.1. Over everyone.
She leads the nation in win shares, field goals made and three pointers made. She’s an alien who has proven capable of finding yet another gear in the NCAA Tournament.
But the Hawkeyes are more than Clark’s excellence, and that’s been proven quite a bit recently. Kate Martin (12.9 PPG/6.5 RPG) and Hannah Stuelke (14.6 PPG/6.8 RPG) have been terrific complementary pieces all season, with both stepping up in a big way to keep Iowa as strong as it was the year prior.
Gabbie Marshall had a quiet overall season, but is known for her March rises, which we’ve seen already with three straight games of 12+ points within the last few weeks. Sydney Affolter is also a huge piece for this team as an extra scorer and rebounder, typically off the bench, but potentially as a starter if Molly Davis is still out with an injury.
All of this is to say, Iowa has more depth than people give it credit. The Hawkeyes revolve around Clark, yes, but they do have plenty of great secondary options that keep this whole train going. One player can lead an offense, but it takes more to have a nation-leading offense (92.8 PPG), the highest-scoring attack since Oregon in 2013-14.
The Hawkeyes, like the Hoosiers, are among the best in the country in a whole lot of offensive statistics. They are No. 1 in two-point percentage (60.3%), effective field goal percentage (58.9%), and points per play (1.05). They’re great on the boards (54.9% rate, 21st in NCAA), tops in the nation with 21.9 assists per game and, overall, avoid turnovers well, even with Clark accounting for 4.8 a game by herself.
Is it all offense for Iowa? Not necessarily. The Hawkeyes have continued to grow defensively over the Clark era, and rank 24th in defensive rating, per Her Hoop Stats.
Weaknesses
Despite a Top 25 defensive rating, teams generally are efficient on their possessions against Iowa, with an opponent 0.82 PPP ranking 253rd in the NCAA. The Hawkeyes aren’t particularly stellar at forcing turnovers either, their opponents turn it over on 16.8% of possessions, which ranks 299th.
The largest potential weakness comes if Clark is not hitting the shots she usually is. We saw this in the early loss to Kansas State, and more recently in the first half against Nebraska in the Big Ten Championship. If those Clark shots are missing, the Hawkeyes often don’t have enough to make up the difference. Of course, Clark can bounce back at any point, as she did against Nebraska, but if it happens for 40 minutes Iowa will struggle to beat anyone.
There’s also Davis, who has been great in a support role (6.1 PPG/3.1 APG/40.7 3PT%) and as a secondary ball handler for Clark. She went down with an injury against Ohio State and missed the entire Big Ten Tournament, but head coach Lisa Bluder has said the injury wasn’t season-ending. Her availability could be significant as the Hawkeyes continue to progress.
Tournament Path
Iowa’s region has the potential to be an absolute gauntlet in every way.
After what should be a routine first round, the Hawkeyes will get West Virginia or Princeton in the next round. The Mountaineers are a stellar defensive unit that forced 24 turnovers per game, with four starters averaging 2.4 steals or more per contes. The Tigers are also a defense-first stalwart, doing it more with prowess on the glass and forcing bad shots.
Either of those games are an intriguing matchup for Iowa, but ones that the Hawkeyes really should be able to handle. If so, they are likely to be getting either Kansas State or Colorado, the former of which has played Iowa twice this season, with the teams splitting the matchups.
The Buffaloes are a well-rounded offense that has struggled down the stretch of the season, but has shown the heights of a true contender if they can find that spark again. Iowa fans likely don’t need a Kansas State rundown, but these Wildcats are good, real good. Kansas Stats avoids turnovers, is smothering on defense and has been impressive throughout this season.
Continuing on, Iowa is likely to see either UCLA or LSU in the Elite Eight. Do you see why this region is getting so much talk now? Well, LSU is the defending national champ, and the Tigers absolutely eat up rebounds and have outrageous depth for talent to deal with. If it’s UCLA, the Bruins have 6-7 center Lauren Betts and star guards Charisma Osborne and Kiki Rice to deal with, along with a top-11 offense and defense and the top rebound rate (59.5%) in the nation.
So, can Iowa at least get to the Final Four? Through all of *this*? I truly think the Hawkeyes can. I trust Iowa against the first two matchups, and even through a potential round three with Kansas State. The Wildcats are an excellent team, but Stuelke’s development throughout this season gives me faith that she can contain Ayoka Lee.
I think Iowa’s path to the Final Four is where I struggle. Both LSU and UCLA are *really* tough matchups for the Hawkeyes inside. So was South Carolina last year, so the Hawkeyes can definitely make it happen, but I think I currently lean against them against either the Tigers or Bruins.
Caitlin Clark can always prove me wrong, and I can’t wait to see this region play out, but my prediction has Iowa falling short of its national title aspirations.
Prediction: Elite Eight
Nebraska
6-seed, Albany 1 Region
Matchup: Texas A&M, 3/22, 10:30 p.m.
No. 1-4 seeds: South Carolina, Notre Dame, Oregon State, Indiana
The Cornhuskers made quite a run through the Big Ten Tournament, and were rewarded with a solid seeding and a realistic route to the second weekend.
Strengths
As seen in Minneapolis, this team has found its rhythm at the right time.
Nebraska took down Purdue, Michigan State and Maryland, and head Iowa fully on the ropes before falling in overtime, but it proved plenty about the type of players Amy Williams has on the roster.
The Cornhuskers are an elite rebounding team, with a 12th-best rebounding rate of 55.7%. That is thanks in large part to forward Alexis Markowski (15.9 PPG/10.8 RPG), a consistent double-double threat who has really elevated her game as a junior.
Markowski is dominant inside, and recently has found a playmaking side to her, tallying 4+ assists in three of the four Big Ten Tournament games after doing so only once in her first 29 games this year. That playmaking allows the Cornhuskers to open up their shooters, and makes the offense significantly more dynamic.
Leading at point is Jaz Shelley (13.7 PPG/5.6 APG/1.7 SPG), a terrific passer and perimeter scorer with 82 three-point makes on the season. She’s also a great defender and has led Nebraska in pivotal stretches throughout her three years here.
This duo is bolstered by a pair of freshman: Natalie Potts and Logan Nissley, Potts (10.6 PPG/5.6 RPG) has shown flashes of true greatness in her first year, and is a difficult cover with her length and shotmaking ability. Nissley (6.7 PPG/39.0 3PT%) is a three-point specialist with zero fear, as she took shot after shot from deep in that overtime against the Hawkeyes.
Nebraska is one of the deepest teams in the country, utilizing a 10-player rotation basically all season. That could help the Cornhuskers later on if they can make a deep tournament run.
Weaknesses
If we get the Nebraska that played in the Big Ten Tournament, this list of weaknesses is much smaller. But Nebraska has had some lulls this season — the Rutgers home loss continues to stick out like a sore thumb — and, for awhile, felt a notch below the other teams within this Hoopla.
The Cornhuskers, on the whole, shoot a decent percentage, but just two larger contributors — Markowski and Potts — even shoot above 40 percent, which can lead to an offense that goes through some cold spells.
Nebraska is a good, not great defensive team that is bolstered by terrific defensive rebounding to limit second chances. But the Cornhuskers don’t force a lot of turnovers (14.2, 269th), and they allow a whole lot of three-pointers to be attempted (32.5% of attempts, 308th).
These aren’t major glaring flaws to deal with, but it has kept Nebraska from making that jump into being elite throughout this season.
Tournament Path
I *really* like Nebraska’s path, considering the seed.
To start, the Cornhuskers get Texas A&M, who has lost 4 out of 5 and is 7-11 in its last 18. The SEC is tough, and the Aggies are a solid defensive unit, but really struggle to score and I expect Nebraska to handle business here.
Then, they would likely get 3-seed Oregon State, and while the Beavers are an excellent team, the other 3-seeds in this tournament are LSU, NC State and UConn, so this is a great draw out of those options.
The Markowski-Reagan Beers matchup would feed families. It would move mountains. I need it. Beers (17.7 PPG, 10.4 RPG, 66.0 FG%) is a machine inside, and is a huge reason for Oregon State’s success. Along with that, the Beavers are another defensive powerhouse, holding opponents to 35.8% shooting, 10th in the nation.
That said, I really do think Nebraska matches up well with them. If Markowski can contain Beers, I trust the Cornhuskers’ alternative options more and think that Nebraska has really found the right gear at the right time.
Seedings would say that Notre Dame would be awaiting Nebraska in the Sweet 16 at this point, and here is where I start to lose a path. The Fighting Irish have won eight straight, have a tremendous guard duo of Hannah Hidalgo and Sonia Citron, and Maddy Westbeld is a great post defender. It’s not out of the question, but I’d have to lean the Irish in this potential showdown.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Ohio State
2-seed, Portland 3 Region
Matchup: Maine, 3/22, noon
No. 1, 3, and 4 seeds: USC, UConn, Virginia Tech
The Buckeyes come into this tournament off two straight losses. Whether that becomes a trend, or is used as fuel, is the difference between an early exit or a potential run to the national title game, and I mean that genuinely.
Strengths
During the 15-game winning streak that preceded these two defeats, Ohio State looked like a world beater.
The Buckeyes are excellent on both sides of the ball, They rank Top 15 in offensive and defensive rating, effective field goal percentage and points per play, They force 20.8 turnovers per game (eighth), and have a 1.33 assist-to-turnover ratio of their own, good for 19th.
The entirety of Ohio State’s starting five is a threat to have a big outburst, with Jacy Sheldon (18.1 PPG, 2.0 SPG) leading the charge most consistently. Cotie McMahon (14.3 PPG, 6.5 RPG) may lack some of that consistency, but at her best, she is an All-American type of talent, with an unstoppable motor that can get her to the rim against anybody. She also has the finesse to score tough baskets under the pressure.
Surrounding these two is Taylor Thierry (11.4 PPG/5.5 RPG/1.7 SPG), a consistently underrated gem of a player who can defend all five positions and score with efficiency when called upon. Celeste Taylor (10.2 PPG/3.5 APG/2.3 SPG) has joined this group and continued to be one of the best defensive players in all of college basketball. Finally, Rebeka Mikulasikova (9.6 PPG/40.9 3PT%) is not a traditional center, but she works to create space on the perimeter for Ohio State’s guard that like to drive. She has gotten much better over the years, and I’m impressed with her continued work in the post as well.
This team has proven the ability to beat anyone on its schedule, with wins over both Iowa and Indiana. There’s also no team I’ve seen that can flip a switch faster than Ohio State, which means it is truly never out of any game.
Weaknesses
The reverse side of that last point is also true: Ohio State sometimes loses that switch, or waits far too long to turn it on.
The Buckeyes are too talented and too well-rounded to have the lapses that they are prone to, and they are often so talented that they can get away with it. But, against Maryland in the Big Ten Tournament, that proved to be their downfall, as the Terps jumped on Ohio State out of halftime and cruised to the upset win.
McMahon is, in some ways, a microcosm of this dilemma. At her best, the Buckeyes are also often at their best. But when she’s settling for deep shots or staying out of the action, it can cause Ohio State’s offense to stall.
While they aren’t a terrible free-throw shooting team, it’s also not a strength (71.2%, 184th), and it has caused games to be closer than they should be at times down the stretch.
Tournament Path
I’m sure Ohio State would have liked to have avoided UConn, but on the whole, I think this is a really solid draw for the Buckeyes to make a run, but I’m also banking on this team being more motivated than ever.
Ohio State should have no issues with Maine, and I honestly don’t think Duke can match the Buckeyes’ scoring if that is the Round of 32 matchup, though there is intrigue there as Taylor plays her old team.
Can Ohio State beat UConn again in the Sweet 16? Yes, absolutely it *can*, and if the 15-game win streak team that has even more fire than ever shows up, I think the Buckeyes can take down the Huskies in a similar fashion to last year. UConn has elite talent, obviously, but are far less deep than usual due to injuries, and I think Ohio State matches up well if it can contain Aaliyah Edwards at all inside.
Now, can the Buckeyes beat USC, who took them down in the season opener 83-74? I do, as that was another classic Ohio State game where it went ice cold in the second quarter, and couldn’t make a large enough comeback to get it done.
I’m using a lot of “can” verbiage because Ohio State scares me. The Buckeyes were asleep in Minneapolis, and I’m hoping that embarrassing early exit woke them up, because I also think they could beat whichever of Iowa, UCLA, LSU or Kansas State is there waiting for them if they get to the Final Four.
My belief in this team is both extremely high and completely terrifying, because the highs and lows can feel so drastic.
Based on the very minimal celebration at their selection show, I think the Buckeyes are locked in, and this roster is good enough and deep enough to make it two straight Big Ten teams in the national championship.
As a reminder, this team was ranked No. 2 in the country in late February. I think they also will be at the end of this tournament.
Prediction: Championship Game
Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB), Twitter/X
Tomorrow: I go through my entire Women’s NCAA Tournament bracket. Let’s ride.