Feel The Illinoise
A look at Illinois' unthinkable turnaround in Shauna Green's first year
Before we get into the Big Ten women’s basketball happenings, I wanted to say that my Top 50 Songs of 2022 are now playlists on Apple Music and Spotify. I’ll plug this again when I rank my top albums on Thursday, but feel free to listen and hate my favorite songs at your leisure.
Also, some programming info, I do plan on having a Monday post next week, despite it being the day after Christmas. If while at home I decide against it, I’ll send something small out, but I really want to do my midseason re-rank of the Hoopla 40 with the non-conference portion over. So, plan on seeing that on the 26th, my gift to you.
Now, let’s give Illinois the attention it deserves.
Before I realized Rutgers was trotting out an eight-player roster, I had Illinois projected to finish last in the Big Ten this season. Why? Probably because the Illini have 15 conference wins over the last seven seasons. A 15-113 record in Big Ten play since 2015-16 is not something that changes overnight, even with a great head coaching hire like Illinois seemed to get with Shauna Green.
Here’s what I wrote about my expected outlook of Illinois:
Illinois is starting over with a new coach and a whole lot of new players. It is likely not going to all come together for a miracle season in year one, but this is more promising than it has felt in awhile for the program.
And, yes, we don’t quite know if all this early progress is going to lead to a lot of Big Ten wins. However, what we do know already is that Green’s first year as Illinois head coach is the most successful season the program has had in nearly a decade.
It’s only been 12 games.
Illinois has not had a winning season since 2012-13. It has not won more than 11 games since 2014-15. And yet, after just 12 games, Green has managed to make the Illini a threat for the NCAA Tournament. Miraculous would be an understatement.
How have they done this? The clear answer is the same one that Green used to fix Dayton in her previous spot: defense. Illinois allowed 74.4 points per game last year, 18th-worst in all of college basketball. Even against just non-conference opponents, the Illini allowed 67.5 per game. Currently, that number is down to 58.3 points per game, with the team holding opponents to just 35.5 percent shooting, 28th-best nationally.
But the offense, which was strictly OK last year, has also skyrocketed from 64.4 points per game up to 80.5, a remarkable jump. Illinois is among the most efficient teams in the country so far, ranking 16th in points per play (0.94 PPP), 13th in field goal percentage (48.0 percent) and third in three-point percentage (41.3 percent). Last season, the Illini ranked 205th, 183rd and 121st in those categories, respectively.
To have such all-around improvement so quickly, Green has gotten significant contributions from both key returnees and transfers. This starts with Makira Cook, who has played at All-Big Ten levels all season.
Cook, a Dayton transfer, is averaging 17.9 PPG, 3.9 RPG and 4.3 APG while shooting 50.3 percent from the field and 46.5 percent from deep. She’s also only getting better, scoring 20 or more in each of her last four games, each of which came while shooting 47 percent or better.
But Cook has not been alone. Adalia McKenzie had a promising freshman season for Illinois, but has blossomed in year two with 16.3 PPG, 6.3 RPG and 1.5 SPG while also making over half her shots (51.3 FG%).
NC State transfer Genesis Bryant has been huge off the bench with 13.1 PPG and 3.0 APG. Both her and Jada Peebles, a returnee, have given the Illini massive perimeter options off the bench, which the duo hitting a combined 51 threes on 102 attempts (50.0 percent).
Kendall Bostic continues to be a rebound machine with 9.7 boards per contest, but she’s also been a much more efficient scorer, adding 8.8 points per game on 62.7-percent shooting, up from 49.4 percent the year prior.
To put it simply, Illinois is succeeding because everyone is playing great basketball, both individually and as a team. The Illini are consistently winning the rebound battle (57,8 percent rebound rate, 14th in the NCAA), limiting turnovers (14.3 per game, 59th) and hitting the shots they need to win consistently. That’s what good teams do, but that’s not what Illinois has done in recent memory.
This start has looked promising for awhile now, but it was the Illini’s game yesterday that made it all, officially, feel extremely real.
Records can be deceiving in non-conference play. Hell, LSU has played a bunch of plumbers and youth pastor groups on the way to a 12-0 record this season. And, for awhile, that was my fear with Illinois.
The 9-2 record was great, and 20-point wins over Charlotte and Pitt were excellent signs that this team was actually good. But the Illini also did lose close to Delaware and hung on to beat a pretty meh Butler team.
Taking Indiana to the final seasons were the biggest signs that Illinois was for real, but it all came to fruition on Sunday. The Illini, on the road against an 11-1 Missouri team that received top 25 votes, won 76-66. Illinois did this without Cook, who was out with an illness.
One more time: An Illinois team that had won 11.7 percent of its Big Ten games over the past seven years, that had just seven wins last season, that has not made an NCAA Tournament in almost two decades, took down an excellent SEC team on the road without its best player.
It wasn’t even all that close either. The Illini got out to a 13-point lead after three quarters, and the closest it ever got again was nine points with 48 seconds to go. McKenzie (21 points) and Bryant (20 points) stepped up without Cook, as did Bostic (14 points, 10 rebounds) and Brynn Shoup-Hill, who had 12 points on 4-of-5 shooting from deep.
It was business as usual for Illinois, who shot 55.4 percent from the field and 45.0 percent from three against a Tigers defense that had held 8 of 12 opponents under 60 points. Yes, the Illini had 19 turnovers, but also forced 17 out of Missouri.
A win like this did not seem feasible for Illinois this year. A 10-2 record felt past unrealistic, bordering on completely insane. But Shauna Green has made this roster into a well-oiled machine seemingly overnight, and there’s no reason to put any sort of ceiling on this team’s potential now.
If this team stays in the NCAA Tournament conversation into March, give Green the national coach of the year honor, it will have been more than deserved.
What to Watch
It’s a shortened week before the holidays, but the Big Ten is ending its non-conference slate with a bang.
Ohio State vs. South Florida, 12/20, 6:30 p.m., FloHoops
Ohio State is in the San Diego Invitational this week and will get two great litmus tests, first here and then against Arkansas or Oregon. Both will be worth watching as the Buckeyes have played excellently so far, but largely against lesser opponents.
Michigan vs. North Carolina, 12/20, 8 p.m., ESPN2
Another “neutral site,” Big Ten game this time in Charlotte for the Jumpman Classic. Michigan has a big Baylor win on the résumé but could use another. North Carolina, even with that big Indiana loss, is an excellent team that’s likely favored here. It should be a great one.
Purdue @ Texas A&M, 12/21, 2 p.m., SEC Network +
Purdue is playing up to its potential so far this season with a 9-2 record with two losses to good teams (Florida State, Maryland) by a combined four points. Texas A&M is not the juggernaut it once was, but it is still a solid team that is very strong defensively, and is much better at home (4-1) than on the road (0-3).
Nebraska vs. Kansas, 12/21, 7 p.m., B1G+
There were some shaky beginnings, but Nebraska is looking like the team that was promised as of late. Now, the Cornhuskers get to host undefeated Kansas, who has surprised many with this 10-0 start. I don’t expect much to separate these two, so if Jaz Shelley can have a clutch performance like she has many times as of late, it could be the difference.
Feature Photo Credit: @IlliniWBB on Twitter
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!