I Believe In Indiana Supremacy
Indiana and Purdue win banger week, while Ohio State... doesn't
Last week, I previewed four games happening between the Big Ten’s top five teams, and how winning that week could shape the conference title race the rest of the way.
It certainly did some of that, with one team coming out as the major victor. But another team a little lower in the standings made a leap that was even more crucial.
Both of those teams are within one state’s borders.
Of the games strictly between Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan and Ohio State, here’s what those teams’ records were:
Indiana: 2-0 (@ Michigan, Ohio State)
Iowa: 1-0 (@ Ohio State)
Maryland: 1-0 (Michigan)
Michigan: 0-2 (Indiana, @ Maryland)
Ohio State: 0-2 (Iowa, @ Indiana)
Iowa and Maryland both had great performances in their matchups against the top of the Big Ten, and that deserves some credit.
The Hawkeyes gave the Buckeyes their first loss of the season, on the road, against a LOUD Ohio State crowd, and did so without McKenna Warnock. That was much in thanks to a 28-point, 15-assist, 10-rebound triple-double by Caitlin Clark.
For Maryland, the Terps forced 24 Michigan turnovers and had a balanced scoring output led by 24 points from Diamond Miller to hand the Wolverines their second straight loss.
Really great performances, but it was Indiana who looked like world beaters this week.
First, the Hoosiers led by as much as 17 points against Michigan before ending up with an eight-point victory. The score was close, but Indiana was in control for the entirety of the second half, despite Michigan shooting well from the floor and only turning the ball over 12 times.
Six Hoosiers were in double figures in the 92-83 victory, but it was Mackenzie Holmes’ 25 points and 10 rebounds that led the way. Sara Scalia also gave Indiana 19 key points off the bench.
Then, it was time for Indiana-Ohio State, in front of an Assembly Hall crowd that was possibly the loudest I’ve ever heard since watching this conference. This game was incredible. The first half was a battle between Holmes and Ohio State freshman Cotie McMahon, who both easily led their teams in scoring at the break.
Ohio State led 36-32 at half. That didn’t last long.
Indiana’s third quarter was among the most impressive things I have ever seen. Against the No. 2 team in the country — a team best known for huge momentum shifts to change games — the Hoosiers gave them more than a taste of their own medicine. When the third quarter was over, it was a bell ring for a boxer that had been getting beaten into a pulp for 10 straight minutes.
Indiana outscored Ohio State 27-6 in the third. Twenty-seven to six. Ohio State was favored to win the game at halftime by ESPN’s metrics. It, uh, wasn’t by the end of the third.
Maybe most impressively was that Indiana did this with just four points from Holmes in the quarter, all of which came at the end of the frame. True freshman Yarden Garzon led the quarter with 11 points, followed by seven from Sydney Parrish, with that duo taking over in the peak of the massive run.
On the other end, the Buckeyes shot 2 of 12 from the field and turned it over six times, both bad things. Maybe more concerning, though, was that Ohio State hit just 2 of its 7 free throw attempts in the quarter. Hit all five of those free points, it’s a 12-point game going into the fourth. Instead, it was 17, and the game was basically over.
Indiana finished the week battling with Rutgers for longer than expected before ultimately taking over for a comfortable victory late. This team is now 20-1, and is still undefeated when Grace Berger is in the lineup. The Hoosiers play teams in a variety of ways and are without a noticeable weakness.
Play fast? Fine by them, Indiana now has the shooters to run with anyone. Slow it up? Great, Indiana has the best post player in the conference, elite defensive players all over the court and a mid-range specialist who has a knack of getting to the line. The 19 points from Scalia was a great reminder of how dangerous she can be, and if she gets back to Minnesota form, she’s the best sixth player off the bench in the Big Ten by a mile.
This Indiana team is deeper, more versatile and more all-around talented than any Teri Moren has ever had. If it stays healthy, this is the most complete team I have watched since I started covering Ohio State four years ago.
Enough about one Indiana team, this state has two, and my god Purdue made sure I wasn’t going to forget that this week.
First, the Boilermakers went on the road and took down No. 22 Illinois 62-52. It was a wire-to-wire victory led by an excellent defensive effort. The Illini shot 32.2 percent from the field and hit just 4 of their 26 threes (15.4 percent), an area that has been a major strength for them all season long.
That made the week a win no matter what happened next. So, for Purdue to follow that up with another road win — a 73-65 victory over Ohio State — means that something special is brewing.
This was another great defensive showing for Purdue, who have now held opponents to 65 or less points in its past three games, an important number because all six of Purdue’s losses have come from teams scoring 70+. Taylor Mikesell and McMahon have felt unstoppable at points this season for Ohio State, so for Purdue to keep both of them in check with 11 points each on sub-40 percent shooting (combined 8 of 24) is deeply impressive.
It also looked like it was shaping up for a classic Ohio State win. Purdue led by as much as 17 in the third quarter, then the Buckeyes started chipping away. It was down to an 8-point margin headed to the fourth, then Ohio State tied it at 58 with 4:28 to play.
After a Boilermaker miss and Ohio State turnover, Purdue’s next possessions in the tie game went like this, with time taken off the clock in parentheses:
Madison Layden made two (30 seconds)
Madison Layden made three (30 seconds)
Abbey Ellis made two (28 seconds)
The offense was completely composed, on the road, after blowing a huge lead against one of the conference’s top teams. To hit these shots while killing nearly 90 seconds of game time was pretty much the dagger, as Ohio State struggled to have the same success offensively.
If it wasn't the dagger, though, this completely filthy shot by Ellis was.
This was the shot in what has been an Abbey Ellis resurgence. The Cal Poly transfer had an excellent first season with the Boilermakers, but was used off the bench to start this season.
Ellis has now started the past six games, and has come up huge in four of them:
24 points against Northwestern
20 points against Minnesota
16 points against Illinois
26 points against Ohio State
Purdue’s defense has stepped up to spark these wins, but so has Ellis. That combination led to a 2-0 week that had a 6.27 percent chance of happening, per Her Hoop Stats. These wins were so, so big for a Boilermaker team that has been on the NCAA Tournament bubble much of this season.
The Ohio State Freakout Meter
Quickly, I wanted to talk about Ohio State, who went from 19-0 to 19-3 in an instant. Two of these losses were to ranked opponents, another was to a Purdue team on the rise, but they all happened in succession and that’s never a great look.
What should the freakout meter be at? I’d say at Yellow, or 5/10, or uh, be a little worried, you get it.
Ohio State didn’t get those 19 wins on accident with this roster, but the patterns in these three losses is a cause of concern. The Buckeyes shot a combined 14 of 68 from three this week. That is 20.6 percent.
Iowa’s game plan seemed pretty clear: let anyone not named Mikesell shoot whatever threes they want. It’s a sound strategy: of current active players, Mikesell’s 38.1 percent efficiency is followed closely by Rebeka Mikulasikova (37.1 percent), but then there’s a huge drop-off for any players with at least 20 attempts.
McMahon (21.2 percent), Rikki Harris (23.2 percent), Taylor Thierry (20.0 percent) and Emma Shumate (25.0 percent) are not consistent from out there, and Iowa knew that. Those four combined for 13 of the Buckeyes’ 25 three attempts against the Hawkeyes, and hit just one one them for a 7.7 percent rate.
Against Indiana, head coach Kevin McGuff seemed to notice this, and the result was far less three attempts overall (15), but the same level of efficiency (3 of 15, 20.0 percent). Then it came back against Purdue, with 28 attempts from deep, nine of which were by Harris, and only seven makes (two by Harris).
But the offensive woes weren’t the only issue. Iowa (17 turnovers), Indiana (12) and Purdue (13) weren’t perfect against Ohio State’s defense, but the full-court press that had flustered so many opponents was simply not the same obstacle this week. Indiana specifically looked completely unbothered by it, and while it may have been a matter of execution, it also could be because a veteran, well-coached team is better suited to exploit that style of defense.
Both of these issues have a clear possible solution, which is why this isn’t a Code Red. That solution is Jacy Sheldon, who appears on track to play sooner rather than later. On offense, Sheldon can score at all three levels which should open up space for Mikesell on the perimeter. On defense, she is a total menace and is the player to thrive in a full-court press (she was averaging SIX steals per game this season prior to the injury).
How many games does Ohio State win this week with a healthy Sheldon? I think it’s at the very least closer in all three. Her return down the stretch will be absolutely pivotal for the Buckeyes to get back on track.
What To Watch
Well I just rambled. I’ll keep it brief talking about the many good Big Ten games coming up this week.
Michigan vs. Illinois, 2/2, 6:30 p.m., BTN
Both teams are just outside the top of the conference and could use a big win. Really fun clash of styles here as well.
Nebraska vs. Michigan State, 2/2, 8:30 p.m., BTN
Nebraska is a bubble team, so it really needs every win it can get, and Michigan State is no slouch.
Iowa vs. Maryland, 2/2, 8:30 p.m., ESPN
These two teams are playing their best basketball right now and the showdown gets to be on ESPN, hell yes. Could be a first to 100 game.
Purdue vs. Indiana, 2/5, 2p.m., FS1
Hey I talked about these teams a lot already! With this one in West Lafayette, it could be a great contest.
Maryland vs. Ohio State, 2/5, 4 p.m., ESPN2
Ohio State *probably* ends the losing streak to Wisconsin, but regardless, could pick up some major lost momentum if it can take down the Terps on Sunday. And, another ESPN(2) game!
Feature Photo Credit: Courtesy of Purdue Athletics
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