2024-25 Team Preview: Iowa

What will the Hawkeyes look like to start a new era?

Surprise! Kind of!

This is the first of two instances where I will be posting multiple team previews in the same week. At one point, this was supposed to happen four times, but as it turns out these previews take a decent amount of time and effort, so that didn’t feel realistic once I was in the swing of things. Still, a pair of doubleheader weeks will get all the team previews out before the first games of the season, and that’s all that matters to me.

Anywho, we have a team here worthy of some discussion!

---

Last Preview:

---

Overview

Whether you are a longtime reader or this is your first time on the site, I’m going to assume you have some idea how Iowa did last season.

Thanks to the starriest of star power, Lisa Bluder’s unit was as dominant as it has ever been. It was yet again shut out of winning the Big Ten outright in the regular season, but the Hawkeyes also once again showed their late-season strength by winning the conference tournament for the third year in a row.

Iowa rode that momentum into a second-straight trip to the Final Four, and then to the national championship, where they once again fell just short of winning it all.

Without talking about those specific stars who we will be getting to, Iowa’s game plan was similar to what Bluder has done so many times before: This team was going to outscore you and it was willing to risk defensive lulls to do so. The Hawkeyes ranked No. 1 in the country with a 117.4 offensive net rating, their highest since at least 2009-10 which is how far Her Hoop Stats tracks. For the record, Bluder had six Top 10 finishes and never ranked lower than No. 51 across in offensive net rating during that 15-season span.

The Hawkeyes were able to fly up and down the court and score at a more efficient rate than anyone in the country, finishing first in effective field goal percentage (57.9%), points per scoring attempt (1.22) and points per play (1.03). Iowa was better defensively than it had been in prior years though, ranking 20th in Her Hoop Stats’ defensive ratings. Teams shot the ball at an average rate against them, but Iowa was able to outbound teams and limit turnovers (15.6% TO rate, 25th in NCAA), both of which were huge for the pace the Hawkeyes play at.

I wasn’t sure if Iowa could be better than it was in 22-23. After the first runner-up finish, the Hawkeyes lost McKenna Warnock and Monika Czinano, two critical starting pieces that didn’t seem easy to replace. But Bluder did great work in what ended up being her final season, and Iowa’s transcendent superstar managed to find another gear I did not know what possible. It may have been the same result as 22-23, but the 23-24 unit was more well-rounded, had an even more dominant version of their best player and absolutely proved themselves, even with all the national eyes surrounding the team.

---

Here's last year’s Iowa roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:

A number next to a player’s name indicates their most recent Hoopla 40 placement.

Departures

One last time, at least as it pertains to Iowa, let’s talk about Caitlin Clark.

The stats are clear and you can see them above. Clark led the team in points (1,234), rebounds (287), assists (346), steals (68) and man, she was even tied for the team lead in blocks (20). She hit a collegiate record 201 threes last season, while the rest of the team made 225. She shot the ball 22.7 times per game, shot the three 13.6 times per game, did all of it with every defense in the world knowing she would be the focal point, and still hit a very efficient 45.5% overall and 37.8% from deep. Clark was excellent at getting to the line (6.8 attempts per game), converting at the line (86.0%) or simply scoring the layup in the first place (57.1% from inside the arc). She had a slight production dip in the NCAA Tournament overall, but still averaged 30.0/7.7/8.7 on 42.8/35.9/87.2 shooting in some of the most high-pressure games of her career.

Does that cover how important she was to Iowa? God no, not even close, and no words ever will. Caitlin Clark was a true once-in-a-lifetime player for this program and it is absolutely impossible to try and replace her. She is also not the only crucial piece to replace.

Kate Martin was nicknamed “The Glue” for being the ultimate role player, but last year she was much more than a piece of the puzzle. Martin played nearly the same amount of minutes per game as she did in 22-23 (28.5 → 28.8), but she used those minutes to really take on the secondary scoring when Clark was covered, increasing her scoring from 7.7 to 13.1 in her final season.

While Clark was either bombing away or driving inside, Martin had more of an in-between game that complemented Iowa well, and she shot 59.0% from two and 37.0% from three in the process. She was the Hawkeyes’ second-best rebounder, a solid playmaker and a fantastic all-around presence for this Iowa roster to thrive off.

Gabbie Marshall is the final staple of the Iowa program to go, a four-year starter who was a tenacious defender and solid shooter from the perimeter. Marshall’s offensive game never reached new heights, but she was reliable from deep down the stretch and could always be counted on at the defensive end. These three guards were Iowa in their time at this program, and it’s a lot of backcourt to replace.

And we aren’t done in the backcourt! Molly Davis had a fantastic final season before going down to injury, shooting 40.7% from deep and becoming an extremely turnover-averse playmaker that Clark could work through. Sharon Goodman was also an outrageously efficient interior scorer whose rebounding off the bench was extremely useful in limited minutes.

That’s a lot of key contributors gone, and it would have been a lot for Bluder to handle, but it’s not Bluder who will be doing the handling. The legendary coach announced she was retiring in May, and longtime assistant Jan Jensen will be taking the reins. The cohesion between Bluder and Jensen feels about as good as you could ask for in a coaching change as large as this, but it could still be another potential adjustment to move on from the 24-year head coach who has done so much for this program.

---

Returnees

Hannah Stuelke made huge strides after becoming a starter as a sophomore. Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball, Twitter/X

So Bluder, Clark, Martin and Marshall are gone, four long-term pieces of Iowa’s ascent that was so nearly the mountain top. It’s a lot, yes, but there appears to be clear belief in both Jensen and what remains. Not a single player transferred out of Iowa, a huge, huge sign of trust in this staff that should make picking up the pieces a whole lot easier.

Hannah Stuelke is likely the name that will need to step up if Iowa wants to keep its place toward the top of the Big Ten. She already did that in a big way last season, improving not only in the volume stats, but also in efficiency across the board, maybe most importantly at the free throw line (46.0 → 62.9%). She felt like a raw player with a high ceiling as a freshman, and a lot of that ceiling came out last year, namely in a 47-point eruption against Penn State. She has that type of dominance in her, and I hope we get to see more of that as the offense revolves more around what she can do.

Sydney Affolter also returns, and should also be given that Glue nickname for how well she quietly played a crucial role for the Hawkeyes. Affolter was yet another extremely efficient shooter in the Iowa repertoire, but she was also a tremendous rebounder who covered a variety of positions without ever needing a lion’s share of the ball. She may need to do it more this season, but a player like this is so critical to have for the spacing Iowa wants.

Stuelke and Affolter are the most well-established returning pieces, but now is the time for a lot of these Iowa rotation players to prove themselves as more. Kylie Feuerbach played all 39 games after missing the 22-23 campaign in its entirely, but needs to improve her shooting (29.6% from 3PT) to become a real two-way threat. Addison O’Grady was also regularly used off the bench and was solid on the interior, but may need to take a step with where Iowa is with forward depth.

The returning piece off the bench I am most excited to see more of is Taylor McCabe. McCabe has made 55 threes on 44.4% shooting across 410 minutes of game action in her two seasons at Iowa. That’s so many threes in not a lot of time, and on efficiency that would get you in an NBA three-point contest most years.

Let me drive this home another way: In both years with the Hawkeyes, McCabe has made at least five threes per 40 minutes on 40+ percent shooting from deep while shooting at least 2 threes per game. Through Her Hoop Stats’ entire database (since 2009-10), there are 20 instances of a player doing this across a season with a minimum of 15 games played. McCabe is the only player to do it twice.

Yeah yeah I extrapolated some specific data to make a point, sue me. The point is that, in limited action, McCabe has been silly efficient, and has been that way for two seasons now. She’s about to get a chance to launch over much larger stretches of the game, and I think she might have a wild scoring output if she can improve her game elsewhere.

The final three returnees are hard to fully gauge for now, as they have mostly been used in lopsided contests. AJ Ediger seems to be another reasonable option to get minutes at forward if she impresses in camp, and Jada Gyamfi’s efficiency was much improved from her freshman season (28.6 → 44.2%). Kennise Johnson was used very sparingly in her freshman season, and she will likely be battling with the new first-year options to get into that core rotation.

---

Incoming Players

Iowa’s transfer portal was about as inactive as you could be unless you’re an extremely annoying football coach in South Carolina. The Hawkeyes, along with no exits, had only one addition, but wow is it a big one.

As I said, Clark is impossible to replace. Getting Lucy Olsen from Villanova is not a replacement, but it is just about as good as Iowa could have done to keep the ball rolling. Olsen was fantastic for the Wildcats last season, taking on heavy volume after Maddy Siegrist’s exit and thriving in it. She was fourth in the NCAA in scoring, did so on decent efficiency (43.8%) and is also a more-than-capable playmaker and defender.

What Olsen is not is the same level of deep threat (29.4%), though she did hit over 35% as a sophomore so she is capable. Olsen is used to heavy volume and that is huge, but Iowa’s attack will have to look different to properly capitalize on her strengths.

She is joined by five freshmen coming in at the absolute perfect time to make a quick impact. All five of them are highly acclaimed prospects and it should be a ton of fun to see who breaks out and in what ways.

Ava Heiden is the lone addition at center, and that could be critical in getting a real opportunity. There are returning options past Stuelke, but ones that also have yet to overly standout from the crowd, and Iowa has been willing to start freshmen plenty in the past if Heiden looks the part.

Aaliyah Guyton, Callie Levin and Teagan Mallegni all feel like real options for volume scorers if the Hawkeyes feel like they lose too many steps there post-Clark. Taylor Stremlow’s all-around numbers out Wisconsin intrigue me as a player that could be like a Martin, Marshall or Affolter who all thrived without dominating the ball.

---

Outlook

Projected Starters

• Lucy Olsen - G

• Taylor McCabe - G

• Sydney Affolter - G

• Hannah Stuelke - F

• Ava Heiden - C

Projected Big Ten Finish: 8th

Iowa never won the regular season with Clark, but the Hawkeyes proved they were the Big Ten’s best repeatedly when it mattered. With so much leaving, a new era awaits for the Hawkeyes, but I still expect this team to be really good and a whole lot of fun to watch.

Olsen, Affolter and Stuelke will start, and I really think McCabe will as well. That’s a really fun set of players that, in my mind at least, complement each other brilliantly. I like Heiden to get a chance at starting since the rest of the lineup would be relatively small, and it could lead to some truly dominant post play if the spacing can still work.

I’m under the assumption that Jensen’s game plan will be extremely similar to Bluder’s, and maybe that’s wrong, but I think a lot of the same things can work for this unit. Of the pieces Clark brought to the table, I actually think they can recreate her shooting success in the aggregate to an extent with Olsen’s dominance inside and McCabe and Affolter’s shooting. They probably won’t hit from 30 feet, but maybe the efficiency could be similar.

Where I’m most curious about is with the ball movement. Clark’s proven to have transcendent vision that also works in the WNBA. Her awareness and ability to throw the ball just about wherever it’s needed is such a weapon to make a whole team better. Iowa should be more well-rounded, but I need to see the offense flow and move with some of that effortlessness it often felt like.

This is a roster that, with Olsen and multiple exciting first-year players, has so much to look forward to this season. National title expectations may not feel reasonable, but NCAA Tournament ones absolutely still do. It’s a new start for Iowa, but it does not feel like the Hawkeyes are at square one

---

Photo Credit: Iowa Women’s Basketball (@IowaWBB), Twitter/X

If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!