Looking Back Before Moving Forward
A look at previous Big Ten predictions, and a brief look ahead
It is officially Team Preview eve.
Next week, I’ll begin my trek through previewing all 18 Big Ten women’s basketball teams ahead of the regular season start in November. Those will focus on all the individual roster moves that have occurred this offseason along with general outlooks for what I’m expecting from each team next year.
With that in mind, I’m taking look back at my predictions from last season here. I’ll also talk very generally about the four additions to the conference for this year — Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington — who are going to add a whole lot to what has already been an explosive Big Ten slate.
Last Week’s Hoopla:
2023-24 Predictions
As I will once again be doing this year, the team previews come out in the reverse order of what I’m predicting to be the Big Ten standings for the upcoming season.
Here’s what order I went with heading into 2023-24, and where that team actually finished at the end of the regular season. Teams I predicted incorrectly are italicized, and ones I predicted VERY incorrectly are also in bold.
1.) Iowa - Actual Regular Season Finish: 2nd (-1)
2.) Ohio State - Actual Finish: 1st (+1)
3.) Indiana - Actual Finish: 3rd
4.) Maryland - Actual Finish: 8th (-4)
5.) Illinois - Actual Finish: 9th (-4)
6.) Michigan - Actual Finish: 6th
7.) Nebraska - Actual Finish: 5th (+2)
8.) Purdue - Actual Finish: 12th (-4)
9.) Penn State - Actual Finish: 7th (+2)
10.) Michigan State - Actual Finish: 4th (+6)
11.) Minnesota - Actual Finish: 11th
12.) Rutgers - Actual Finish: 14th (-2)
13.) Wisconsin - Actual Finish: 10th (+3)
14.) Northwestern - Actual Finish: 13th (+1)
The good news: I got three right! That may not seem like a lot, but it’s also not zero! The reasoning for two of them also were correct: Indiana felt a tad behind Iowa and Ohio State which ended up being true, and Michigan just finds a way to be in the top half under Kim Barnes Arico no matter what. Minnesota I got “lucky” with, in quotes because I definitely did not feel lucky watching injury troubles lead to a second half Gophers stumble.
Way Too Low
Michigan State
Wisconsin
The success stories!
Let’s start with the Badgers, who still haven’t fully made it over the hurdle just yet. I was very low on where Wisconsin stood heading into last year after what appeared to be a tough transfer portal run.
Instead, the Badgers once again made improvements, jumped from 11 wins to 15 and finished the year in 10th. Serah Williams blossomed into a true superstar, and I’m so excited to see where Wisconsin heads next.
The same can be said for how I feel on the Spartans. Robyn Fralick wasted no time reshaping this program, and it truly felt like she knew how to get the absolute best out of her roster last year. I thought Michigan State had talent, but I absolutely never expected a top four finish. Fralick had an excellent case for Big Ten Coach of the Year in my opinion, and her work had me extremely wrong on their placement.
Way Too High
Maryland
Illinois
Purdue
Alas, I also swung high on a few, but I regret nothing with any of these.
The Terps had some real bad injury luck that shrunk their rotation mightily. Maybe the team still didn’t have the ceiling I predicted, but I would have liked to have seen a full strength version to find out.
The Illini and Boilermakers both missed their expected marks after what appeared to be real promise within the programs. That’s true, and yet I don’t feel any worse about where either Shauna Green or Katie Geralds is taking their team, not yet at least.
Purdue had a veteran core but could not quite raise its bar of play high enough. The Boilermakers could scrap and stay in a lot of games against good teams, but often did not to enough to earn the win. Illinois was similar, but ended stronger than it started and ended up winning the WBIT in the process. The Illini also is bringing back its entire core to do it all again, so clearly they also believe this past season was a fluke.
The Newbies
We have fresh meat in the Big Ten in the shape of four Pac-12 teams: Oregon, UCLA, USC and Washington. That, for the most part, only raises the level of play in the Big Ten.
I averaged out the conference’s offensive, defensive and overall ratings in a previous Hoopla, and adding these four teams would make those numbers improve on the whole.
(All numbers are via Her Hoop Stats)
Offensive Rating
UCLA - 114.0
USC - 109.8
Big Ten Average - 107.62
Washington - 99.4
Oregon - 95.8
This rating is the exception. While UCLA and USC did finish above the conference, Washington and Oregon were further below the line, as the Huskies play slow and the Ducks struggled overall.
Defensive Rating
UCLA - 78.7
USC - 79.8
Washington - 85.3
Big Ten - 88.85
Oregon - 92.0
Outside of Oregon, who truly did struggle mightily, the other three newcomers improve the Big Ten’s defensive prowess. UCLA and USC may do some heavy lifting as well: The Bruins and Trojans would have been first and second in the conference last year.
This is an area the Big Ten could use improvement, and it is adding great teams to do exactly that.
Overall Rating
UCLA - 35.3
USC - 29.9
Big Ten - 18.78
Washington - 14.1
Oregon - 3.8
This makes it clear: The Big Ten is adding two elite teams from last season, and that’s before considering that both teams should be even better in 2024-25. Washington is another solid unit who could compete for an NCAA Tournament. Oregon needs work, but it has a new look roster led by Deja Kelly that should be interesting. The Ducks would have finished 15th out of these 18 teams in every rating last season, and they need to find some life post-Sabrina Ionescu.
The next time I see you, it’ll be for a team preview. We. Are. So. Back.
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