Predicting The Men's NCAA Tournament
Love for the Gaels and Volunteers in a weird bracket year
This is my final call for you to join my Women’s Tournament Challenge on ESPN. Games begin tomorrow for this tournament, and Homefield prizes are on the line. We have over 50 entires, but let’s keep getting those numbers up!
Women’s NCAA Tournament Predictions:
Like my women’s predictions, this will not go into significant depth, but I’ll share all my picks by region, explain a key upset, and say why I’m going with a certain team for the Final Four.
East
Key Upset: 11 Duquesne over 6 BYU
The top teams in this region, for the most part, feel legitimate to me, and I think it’s going to make for some excellent matchups past the opening round.
I do believe the Big 12 is a great conference this year (see: Iowa State), but I also buy into the fact that the conference has seemed to inflate itself with easy non-con schedules followed by playing each other, so I am skeptical of some of the middle portion teams like BYU.
That has led me to go with Duquesne, who snuck into the tournament with an A10 championship and has been red hot as of late. This team is solid defensively and can force a lot of turnovers, and I think they have what it takes to beat the Cougars.
Final Four Team: 2 Iowa State
Beat Houston by 28 in the final game heading into this tourney, and yeah, I’ll start to believe in you.
The Cyclones have elite metrics thanks to a tremendous defense, and have proven capable of beating top teams thanks to the same Big 12 conference I attacked moments ago. Am I a hypocrite? Maybe, but I also don’t trust a repeat champion, and UConn has too much buzz for me to feel confident picking them. It’s a stupid reason, but history feels like it goes that way.
West
Key Upset and Final Four Team: 5 Saint Mary’s
This region feels destined to be a sloppy mess. It is full of teams that feel extremely unreliable, and I think it’s about to be a beautiful disaster of a region because of that.
With that in mind, I trust in Saint Mary’s to come out of this on top. I really love this Gaels team, their suffocating defense and tremendous rebounding. Saint Mary’s is 18-1 in its last 19, with the one loss coming against Gonzaga, who the Gaels have also beaten twice in that same stretch. This team is red hot, and can put any team in hell at any moment’s notice.
Did you know Saint Mary’s held a conference opponent to 28 points? Well they did, and that seems good to me. If any region is getting weird and freaky, the West yearns for it, and I think the Gaels somehow feel like the best bet… if they can avoid the hot Grand Canyon pick in Round 1. I will be sweating tonight.
South
Key Upset: Keeping Wisconsin, Duke, and Texas Tech in the Round of 32
This is like the reverse of the West for me. I have very few upsets in the South, and I just don’t feel great about any of them. You want me to explain picking Florida to lose? I won’t do it. Vibes, I guess.
Instead, I feel like keeping Wisconsin, Duke, and Texas Tech feels like a surprise, as they keep coming up as hot upset picks. NC State specifically I have a tough time with, because the Wolfpack’s run was so fun and excellent, but I also think it can be so hard to try and re-capture that lightning in a bottle.
James Madison is a great team, but the Badgers really impressed me in the Big Ten Tournament and I don’t see them going down immediately. And, despite my dislike for the program, I just think Duke is too talent to fall to Vermont’s defense-first approach.
Final Four Team: 1 Houston
Lame, I know. The Cougs are a fantastic basketball team that can put almost anyone in a dumpster with their defense. That Houston-Kentucky showdown would be a super clash of styles, but I trust Houston to score against the Wildcats more than the other way around.
Midwest
Key Upset: 13 Samford over 4 Kansas, 5 Gonzaga
Hello, Samford. The Bulldogs are like my Marshall pick from the women’s side: A freakishly fast-paced underdog that can score like crazy. Samford is specifically great from deep, which makes them the perfect threat to get hot and take down a pair of tournament staples.
The Kansas pick feels easier. The Jayhawks are hurt at the wrong time, which makes them doubly susceptible to an upset (it is really like that Marshall women’s pick). The all-Bulldogs Round of 32 matchup would be fun, and I really just don’t trust this year’s Gonzaga team, so I figured why the hell not?
I was tempted to take Samford over Purdue because, well, that would be very Purdue of them, but I think the Boilermakers have lost to double-digit seeds one too many times in a row to let it happen again.
Final Four Team: 2 Tennessee
I’m sipping the Volunteers Kool-Aid, early SEC Tournament exit be damned. This is a great all-around team with a star in Dalton Knecht that feels capable of leading the group to big things. And I don’t trust Purdue, which made the pick that much easier.
Final Four
2 Iowa State over 5 Saint Mary’s
This game might be first to 50. Iowa State and Saint Mary’s will try to kill each other out there, but the Cyclones feel like the more likely team to find a way to break through and get to the title game.
2 Tennessee over 1 Houston
I have gone back and forth on this one in my head a lot, but the Vols feel like the better all-around team to me, as they are better rebounders and scorers than the Cougars. Houston’s defense might just be that good and get this done, but my heart keeps telling me it might be Tennessee’s year.
National Championship
2 Tennessee over 2 Iowa State
Spoiler alert: I think it’s Tennessee’s year. Behind Knecht, Zakai Zegler and Jonas Aidoo, this team has the goods to do it.
They check all the boxes for me, and I would take them here over Iowa State in what would also likely be a lower-scoring affair. Tennessee feels built to battle with plenty of styles of play, and I think that range will help them get it done.
Photo Credit: Saint Mary’s Athletics
Hoopla will be back on Tuesday, March 26 after the women’s opening weekend.
If you are interested in Big Ten women’s basketball content, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!