Predicting the Women's NCAA Tournament
Featuring a lot of Albany chalk with some Portland chaos
***Programming Note: Next week’s Hoopla will be on Tuesday (3/26) to let the entire first weekend finish before posting.***
I’ve talked your ear off on the Big Ten teams’ chances in postseason play, so let’s widen the scope and look at my full bracket predictions.
Big Ten NCAA Tournament Preview Part 1
Big Ten NCAA Tournament Preview Part 2:
Reminder: Join The Hoopla Groupla!
This is another call to join my ESPN Tournament Challenge! It is labeled “The Hoopla Groupla 2024,” and features prizes to Homefield Apparel for the top three brackets. And, as was the case in past years, as long as you do better than me you will earn a shoutout in a future Hoopla with whatever SAFE FOR WORK bracket name you go with.
We are already over 40 entries, but I’d love to keep that number rising, so feel free to enter and spread the good word about our beloved Big Ten women’s basketball teams.
For this, I am going to go region by region and highlight some key picks I’ve made, before showing off my Final Four and ultimate national champion.
Albany 1
Key Upset — 10 Marquette over 7 Ole Miss
No major upsets within this region, outside of the Big Ten one involving Nebraska, but I do think the Golden Eagles can get it done against Ole Miss.
The Rebels had a great run last year and are a great defensive unit once again, but they also are pretty lackluster offensively and don’t defend the three ball at a particularly stellar rate.
Marquette ranks 15th in three-point percentage nationally and its four key players all shoot 37+ percent from deep. This is a game between two excellent defensive teams, but I trust Marquette’s offense more to get it done.
Final Four Team — 1 South Carolina
Look, South Carolina is not unbeatable, and the Gamecocks were a miraculous Kamilla Cardoso buzzer beater away from coming in with a loss. And yet, here we are. This team is so outrageously deep, and so significantly improved offensively from last year it is terrifying.
I would love to see a rematch of the Notre Dame game from the start of the season, but I don’t think the Fighting Irish have gotten 29 points better from then over these Gamecocks.
Albany 2
Key “Upset” — 2 UCLA over 3 LSU
I’m sorry for being boring here in these regions without big time upsets, but I really think these matchups between top seeds are going to be *so* excellent.
That said, I know UCLA is the higher seed, but I anticipate LSU will be favored if this matchup arrives. The Tigers are outrageously talented and can beat you in a wide variety of ways, yes. But the Bruins have impressed me all season long with how rock solid they seem to be.
UCLA is one of the few teams better at rebounding than LSU, and is a larger threat to hit from three. After a tough stretch in the middle of the season, the Bruins have been incredible over the past month in a ferocious PAC-12, and I really think this is a unit that can dethrone the defending national champs.
Final Four Team — 2 UCLA
Again, I could repeat a lot of what is said above.
Iowa very well could come out of this region, but these types of teams are difficult matchups for the Hawkeyes, especially if they can score from multiple levels like LSU managed to do in the title game.
This whole region is going to be cinema, and I’m so excited to see how it plays out.
Portland 3
Key Upset — 13 Marshall over 4 Virginia Tech
Oh, you wanted some spice? Here’s what I’ve got.
Nevermind picking the play-in winner over Baylor, let me discuss the Marshall Thundering Herd, who I love. This team plays with their hair on fire, ranking fourth nationally in points per game thanks to the fastest pace in the country: 80.4 possessions per 40 minutes.
That’s a lot to deal with in a tournament setting, and it’s been a lot for Marshall’s opponents to deal with after the first six weeks of the season. After starting the year 4-5, the Thundering Herd are 20-1. This team is in dangerous rhythm, and are coming up against a Virginia Tech team that’s out of rhythm for reasons out of the Hokies’ control.
All-American superstar center Elizabeth Kitley has been out with an ankle injury, and the Hokies lost 3 of their last 4 games without her. Kitley’s status for the NCAA Tournament remains up in the air, but it feels very possible she will be out, or limited, for the opener.
Yes, this game is a home one for Tech, and that place is going to be LOUD. But, if Marshall can get that fast-paced attack going, I really believe in a wild upset here.
Note: Of the Vanderbilt/Columbia duo, I think the Lions are the team more suited to make this Sweet 16 run I have set out. If the Commodores win there, I may swap in the Herd to the Sweet 16, but will stick to my guns on the Baylor upset.
Final Four Team: 2 Ohio State
As discussed in Hoopla, if the Buckeyes come out and look like a rejuvenated team that’s real mad about dropping their final two regular season games, I don’t think anyone in this group can stop them, even the USC team that beat them in the season opener.
I’m also not counting out Syracuse taking out UConn before the Huskies even get a chance to play Ohio State, but I just couldn’t fully commit to it.
Portland 4
Key Upset — 5 Utah over 1 Texas
I think the Portland regions could get real rowdy. There were lots of options for the key upset — Gonzaga’s faltering to Portland has me concerned, which led me to a UC Irvine upset, while I just really like that Green Bay team, so I took the Phoenix over Rickea Jackson and the Lady Vols — but I’m choosing to trust what has been an untrustworthy Utes team this year.
Utah, led by Alissa Pili, has shown the flashes of brilliance all season that make me believe, and the offense is well-rounded and efficient enough to give anyone a fight. But the Utes also haven’t put together three straight victories since January, so it’s a big risk.
The way I have the bracket, Utah’s first higher-seeded matchup comes right here. Texas, led by freshman star Madison Booker, has done a tremendous job maintaining this level, even with Rori Harmon lost to injury.
I think this would be a great battle, but when I look at the ceilings of these two teams, I do believe in this Utes roster a whole lot. I also think back to just how close Utah was last year, a few bad bounces away from taking down LSU in the Sweet 16. I think Pili and co. are here to make a statement.
Final Four Team — 3 NC State
I love this Wolfpack roster, it’s has so many offensive threats while continuing to play excellent defense.
Wes Moore has plenty of NCAA Tournament experience at NC State, but he has never gotten the program into the final weekend before. I think the region plays out in a way to get it done this time around, led by the duo of Aziaha James and Saniya Rivers.
Final Four
1 South Carolina over 3 NC State
Rivers gets a matchup against her old team, but it is the Gamecocks who get to the national title game here for me.
Again, a lot of what I said already: South Carolina is a special basketball team under Dawn Staley, and it will take a lot to bring them down. I think NC State is filled with talent and has the defensive prowess to slow the Gamecocks down, but the Wolfpack also doesn’t turn teams over enough to make extra opportunities.
This would be a fun one, but I have a hard time picking against the No. 1 overall seed.
2 Ohio State over 2 UCLA
These teams met in Columbus earlier this season, and the Bruins won a close battle. 6-7 center Lauren Betts is a tough matchup for the Buckeyes, but I think Ohio State’s overall speed and tenacity can overcome the size mismatch and get the job done.
For this to happen, and for Ohio State to be here at all, we need to see the best of Cotie McMahon. It happened last year and the Buckeyes nearly went to the Final Four, so I do trust McMahon to find that gear at the right time and help Ohio State get to its second-ever title bout.
National Championship
1 South Carolina over 2 Ohio State
In the end, I had no answers on how to be creative, I think South Carolina is just that good.
This was also the case in a lot of ways last year, and then Caitlin Clark found a way to dismantle Staley’s unit anyway, so this is not in any way a given outcome. And I think it would be interesting for Ohio State to be here after just playing UCLA and Betts, with Cardoso being a similar matchup issue.
The Buckeyes are built in a way that I think can give South Carolina at least a few fits, but the Gamecocks’ addition of shooters has really made them a matchup nightmare that I have no answers for.
Getting all the way here would be a huge accomplishment for Ohio State, but I think Staley’s group is getting it done this time around.
Tomorrow: A look at the men’s bracket. Then, we get to watch these dang tournaments.
Photo Credit: Utah Women’s Basketball (@UTAHWBB), Twitter/X