2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Michigan
Can the Wolverines remain a top-end team with some key talent gone?
The final preview before we enter the top five. I knew it entering the writing process, but man, there are a lot of really good rosters in the conference this year, including this one.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
I can only talk about the historical side of Kim Barnes Arico’s greatness as Michigan’s head coach so many times in so many different ways, so let me just use some of the stats from last year’s preview to emphasize it again:
Before Kim Barnes Arico took over as head coach in 2012 (38 seasons):
Michigan had made the NCAA Tournament five times, ever
Michigan had two NCAA Tournament wins, both in the first round
Michigan’s best finish in the Big Ten since 2000 was a tie for fourth (2010-11)
Michigan had been ranked in the AP Top 25 at the end of a season once, ranking 25th in the 1999-2000 season
Since Barnes Arico has been at Michigan (10 11 seasons):
FiveSix NCAA Tournament appearances (would be seven with the COVID-canceled 2020 postseason)EightNine NCAA Tournament winsThe program’s first ever Sweet Sixteen and Elite Eight appearances (2021, 2022)
Top four finish in the Big Ten four times
TwoThree straight finishes in the AP Poll (16th, 12th, 18th)
Barnes Arico has built this program into a consistent winner. Even in Michigan’s first year without superstar forward Naz Hillmon, the Wolverines continued to put together more than enough wins to not just get back to the NCAA Tournament, but stay ranked throughout the season.
Hillmon was Michigan’s top rebounder all four seasons she was with the team. So what do the Wolverines do in her first year gone? Lead the conference in rebound rate, obviously.
Michigan has never been a fast-moving team under Barnes Arico, and that continued last season, even if this was the fastest pace the team has had since 2015-16. Slowing it down worked once again, with the Wolverines ranking among the Big Ten’s most efficient offenses, along with the second-best scoring defense.
This was a top 25 team both in the polls and according to the analytics. Michigan’s 1.11 points per attempt was 12th in the country, and a relatively high turnover rate (19.6%, 204th in NCAA) was the only significant blemish.
Michigan’s 23-10 record signifies that this was a very good team, and it was. But where those wins and losses came tells the story of the Wolverines’ season.
Across the 2022-23 campaign, Michigan played eight games against Top 25 opponents, according to Her Hoop Stats team ratings. The Wolverines went 0-8 in those games. The other losses include a three-point defeat to a Toledo team that went on to win 29 games, including one over Iowa State in the NCAA Tournament. Michigan also lost to Wisconsin on the Badgers’ senior day, 78-70.
Michigan was consistently the gatekeeper of the Big Ten last year. This was clearly a talented team: it won a tourney game against a very good UNLV roster, and seven of the 10 losses were by single digits. But, whatever the reason was, the Wolverines just could not break into that upper echelon and steal a win against a top program.
Here’s last year’s Michigan roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Michigan has retained a major core for the last handful of seasons, and all the original pieces of that core are now gone. Three of the four top players from last year have departed, including the constantly underrated duo of Emily Kiser and Leigha Brown.
Kiser went from a role player off the bench to one of the most important players in the country seemingly overnight. She averaged 12 minutes per game as a junior, and ultimately averaged nearly 16 PPG as a super senior. Kiser was a two-way force who was surprisingly versatile as a talent, which was proven by her win shares ranking 32nd in the country out of nearly 3,400 players. I’m still *mad* she didn’t end up on a WNBA roster.
Brown, however, is indeed in the WNBA, as she should be. Already a dynamic scorer, Brown took on more point guard duties in her final collegiate season and became one of the best facilitators in the nation (5.8 APG was 16th in the NCAA). Brown excelled late in a shot clock, either in finding an efficient mid-range jumper or by getting to the line, something she did over and over again throughout her career.
Those two left Michigan for professional opportunities, while sharpshooter Maddie Nolan ended up transferring across the country to Colorado. Nolan was an excellent two-way guard whose shooting ability will be missed, even if she couldn’t quite find the stroke she had the year prior (68 3PT made, 40.5%).
Of the four other transfers out, the Kate Clarke departure stands out to me. She showed ability as a shooter in very limited play, but was a top 100 prospect coming into the program. Those type of players always hurt to lose after just one season.
Returnees and Transfers
Some players just have *it*. You know *it* when you see it, and Laila Phelia has it.
Despite a seven-game absence due to injury, Phelia proved capable of being Michigan’s next star plenty in her sophomore season, finishing second on the team in scoring with a very efficient shooting rate, including an outrageous leap from deep: a whopping 13.9 percent improvement.
Phelia has the shooting and driving ability to be a No. 1 option, without question. She is also a more-than-capable rebounder and defender from the guard spot who finds a way to shine on the largest of stages: in a NCAA Tournament loss to LSU where Michigan scored just 42 points, Phelia scored 20 of those points.
As long as health doesn’t play a factor, there are very few players with higher ceilings than Phelia this season, both in the Big Ten and nationwide.
Behind her, Cameron Williams has a chance to make a Kiser-like impact in her senior year. Williams started all 33 games last season and played well as the secondary inside option, including a few standout moments like the 18 points and 10 rebounds she had against Ohio State. With this much experience under Barnes Arico, expect her numbers to make a big leap.
If you are looking for the most likely Nolan replacement, it could come from Hobbs. She took 75 attempts from deep and improved her percentage nearly 20 points between her freshman and sophomore seasons. I’d also like to see Greta Kampschroeder become a deep-threat option. She is certainly willing to shoot from three, but her shooting rates never got on track during her first season in Ann Arbor. As a former high-four-star, it feels like a bounce back is extremely possible.
The more you go through their roster, the more you realize how much depth the Wolverines bring back. A pair of sophomores — Alyssa Crockett and Chyra Evans — return with much more opportunity to break into the main rotation. Crockett’s top 50 prospect rating, paired with Michigan’s potential need for forwards, makes her a player to look out for.
Let’s not forget about Elise Stuck either. Stuck shot well from all over the floor, but barely shot the ball: Her 5.7 field goal attempts per 40 minutes was in the fifth percentile among all Division I players. We saw what happens when she does shoot — 11 points, 5/5 FG to save Michigan against Penn State in the Big Ten Tournament — so I want to see Stuck be more proactive in finding those looks this year.
Barnes Arico made three significant adds through the transfer portal, all of which are grad transfers who were productive in their previous homes.
Lauren Hansen has over 100 games of experience at Auburn and Missouri, and that SEC experience should make for an easy transition to Ann Arbor. She was also prolific for the Tigers and is capable of knocking them down from three (43.3 3PT% in 2020-21).
Elissa Brett was the best player on a 30-win Bowling Green team that made it to the Fab Four in the WNIT. Her 278 three attempts were sixth-most in the country, which tells me she should only improve her efficiency (33.1%) with more talent around her.
Last but not least, Taylor Williams was one of the few bright spots on a lackluster Western Michigan roster, but she was excellent in her own right. That rebounding and blocking ability will be important as Michigan moves on from another All-Big Ten talent inside.
Freshmen
If Kim Barnes Arico didn’t sell you with her track record on the court, she will win over every last person with what she is doing on the recruiting trail right now.
The three transfers in were a great haul on their own, and they are paired with three more top-80 prospects. She also has a pair of five-star commitments for the 2024 class in Olivia Olson (No. 8 overall) and Syla Swords (No. 22). Michigan is building, my friends.
Taylor Woodson is the highest rated of the 2023 group, and deservedly so as she was an excellent scorer for Hopkins High School, a dominant team that has developed the likes of UConn star Paige Bueckers and Minnesota guard Amaya Battle. We have two Taylor W’s and two Williams’ in Michigan’s frontcourt, which is a disaster for my brain, but excellent from a talent standpoint.
Katy Edie’s high school résumé screams shooter. She broke every three-point record her high school had to offer, and also managed to be a pest on defense while doing it. That skillset will work beautifully in the Big Ten.
Finally, there’s Macy Brown, the state’s best player in 2022-23. That on its own is a win for the program, but Brown also seems to have a do-it-all skillset, and could make an impact right away because of that.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Lauren Hansen
G - Elissa Brett
G - Laila Phelia
G - Jordan Hobbs
F - Cameron Williams
Projected Big Ten Finish: 6th
Michigan, on its surface, has a tall task ahead to remain as good as it has been for the past few seasons. Emily Kiser, Leigha Brown and Maddie Nolan are key, key losses, and a lot of other programs would need a transition season or two to return to that level of form.
But this is a Kim Barnes Arico program, and very few develop talent quite like her. There is always a player that was in the rotation that bursts through and becomes All-Big Ten level, and I expect a lot of the same to happen again this season.
What this starting lineup looks like outside of Phelia and Cameron Williams is a mystery to me. Hobbs had nine starts last season and has the height (6-3) to play at the four if needed, and Hansen and Brett felt too prolific at their previous schools to relegate to the bench.
I was also very, very close to making Woodson a day one starter. She played at a high-level high school and is extremely versatile, so don’t be surprised if she earns a large role out the gates.
This Michigan roster is built excellently to at least keep the ball rolling. Phelia is now the unquestioned top option, a role she is built for. Barnes Arico has surrounded her with veteran talents and high-volume shooters, which should only help the occasional spacing problems the Wolverines have faced in the past.
Michigan has developed elite rebounders, and will need to again this year to remain so dominant in that key statistic. Cameron Williams seems there already, and Taylor Williams did plenty of rebounding at her last stop.
My area of concern comes with facilitating. There’s no clear point guard option (Olson will be that next year), and all three leading assist-makers from last year’s team are gone. Brett and Hansen seem like they could take that role on, but it will be hard to replicate what Leigha Brown gave this team a season ago.
Michigan might be a year out from truly competing for a conference title, but that time is coming. Hansen and Brett are the only two players on the roster in their final year of eligibility, and Michigan is set up to bring in some incredible talent after them.
That’s no excuse for a down year in 2023-24, as the Wolverines are still full of well-established players, along with a trio of top 80 prospects. Another NCAA Tournament appearance shouldn’t be in doubt, but how much Michigan can fill the gaps from last year’s roster will decide how high the ceiling goes.
Photo Credit: Michigan Women’s Basketball, Twitter/X
If you are interested in more Big Ten women’s basketball content like this, you can subscribe with the button at the top or bottom of the post, or share it with the button below. Thanks!