2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Michigan State
With a new coach, can the Spartans get the results that last year's team couldn't?
For the second straight week, we talk about a team that has a new head coach. But while Minnesota’s build is all about the future potential, this team is more ready to win now, and less ready to win in a year or two.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
Michigan State is in a bit of a weird place, and that’s not really anyone’s fault.
Suzy Merchant had been the head coach of the Spartans since 2007, and she led Michigan State to 10 NCAA Tournament appearances over that time. But Merchant left the team for health reasons in February, and ultimately stepped down to focus on her health and wellbeing this summer. That, paired with the tragic shooting on Michigan State’s campus that killed three students in February, made for a difficult second half of the season for the Spartans, none of which had to do with basketball.
Despite that, under Merchant and interim head coach Dean Lockwood, Michigan State amassed an above .500 record, but that doesn’t tell the full tale of this Spartans roster.
Folks, Michigan State’s record vs. actual production last year is jarring to look at.
Despite a 7-10 Big Ten record, despite 14 losses overall, Michigan State was a NCAA Tournament-level team last year. The Spartans — I want to emphasize again, with a record barely over .500 — outscored opponents by over 11 per game on average.
How does a team do this? We got a good idea of it in last year’s non-conference slate. Michigan State went 8-3 in those games. The eight wins were by an average of 46.0 PPG. Two of the losses were by a combined 11 points, with the 31-point defeat to Iowa State being an outlier. And man, was that a true outlier.
That loss to the Cyclones was Michigan State’s only regulation loss by more than 10 points all season. The Spartans lost one other game by 15, on the road against a ranked Michigan team.1
In games that were decided by 10 points or less, Michigan State went 5-12. Three of those losses and just one of those wins happened in overtime. The Spartans were 11-2 in all other instances. It was a jarring season, and if Michigan State could have gotten a few more breaks here and there, it was a team that absolutely could have made the tourney.
Unlucky feels like a crutch term to use for teams, but it’s hard to describe Michigan State’s 2022-23 season in any other way. On the bright side, it means that it’s an easier job to get back to the winning ways for the new head coach.
That new coach is Robyn Fralick, who comes to East Lansing after a successful run at Bowling Green. She revitalized a program that had slipped up and, most recently, got the Falcons to 30 wins and to the WNIT semifinals.
Unlike Minnesota’s new hire, Fralick feels like Michigan State continuing the trajectory that was left in Merchant’s absence: Fralick likes her teams playing fast, selfless basketball. Bowling Green was one of the best teams in the country both at passing the ball and avoiding turnovers (11th in the NCAA with a 1.3 assist-to-turnover ratio).
That style should work well with Michigan State’s roster, though it will be missing some key pieces from last season.
Here's last year’s Michigan State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
As is often the case with a head coach change, there’s a decent amount of turnover on this roster. In total, eight players are gone from last year’s roster, six of which are transfers.
There are three big losses, only two of which were through the portal. The non-portal departure is Kamaria McDaniel, who was a gifted scorer and high-volume option. She was also excellent at getting to the free throw line, but she tested her luck in the WNBA Draft and will not return.
Matilda Ekh’s ability as a pure scorer, and potential to grow into a true star, is a big loss for the Spartans. While she didn’t have the sophomore jump I was hoping for, Ekh was still one of the best deep threats in the Big Ten, ranked No. 34 in my end-of-year Hoopla 40, and was near automatic at the free throw line. I expect her to be a key contributor for a very good Virginia Tech team.
Finally, Taiyier Parks left in the portal, but Michigan State will be seeing her as an opponent for the Buckeyes. Parks was a great interior option and excelled as a rebounder. Her 0.19 win shares per 40 minutes was second-most on the team, showing how important she was, even if primarily off the bench.
Also of note, but not in the graphic above: Lauren Walker medically retired due to struggles with Arterial Thoracic Outlet Syndrome. She did not play in 2022-23.
Returnees and Transfers
I think it’s time for the DeeDee Hagemann takeover.
The former top-25 prospect has racked up significant minutes for Michigan State in both of her seasons, and she made some great adjustments to her game in year two that proved she’s capable of leading this team.
Yes, Hagemann averaged under 10 PPG and still has not locked down a solid three-point shot. But there’s something about how Hagemann, No. 33 in the Hoopla is able to control the game that makes her so exciting. Her assist numbers remained strong as a sophomore, but her turnover numbers were almost night and day, going from 3.0 per game in 21-22 to 1.9 in 22-23.
Hagemann also improved significantly from inside the arc (35.0% from 2PT in 21-22 to 48.2% in 22-23), which takes away a lot of the pressure of finding a better three shot. She also led Michigan State in defensive win shares.
The pieces are all there, and the opportunity is now there for Hagemann, No. 33 in the Hoopla 40, to take more control of the offense.
But Hagemann is by no means alone in trying to keep Michigan State in the NCAA Tournament hunt. Moira Joiner has been a reliable shooter throughout her time in East Lansing, and her production took a sizable jump last season. She helps fill the gaps of Hagemann’s game very well, and that duo should make for a more-than-respectable backcourt pairing this season.
That pairing will likely be joined by Gabby Elliott, who was off to an excellent start last season before an ACL tear ended her season. Elliott was a key scorer, rebounder and defender in her 11 games of action, and did it all on great shooting from the field. There’s no reason to think she will be left out of the starting lineup, assuming she is fully recovered from the injury.
Isaline Alexander will likely fill the bulk of the role that Parks leaves behind, as both and very similar production last season. Alexander’s prowess on the boards makes her another favorite to see a boost in volume and minutes.
Julia Ayrault and Tory Ozment are experienced options that will likely come off the bench once again. Ayrault was a solid rebounder last year from the guard position, especially considering her limited minutes, and that could get her some time considering the lack of forward depth this roster holds.
Finally, Theyrn Hallock and Abbey Kimball are the returning freshmen, and I’d like to see a lot more of both of them this season. Hallock showed strength as a passer, and Kimball was productive as an interior scorer while struggling to get her three-point ability up and running. A new coach and more development should only help both of them.
Fralick is not leaving her MAC, or Bowling Green, roots fully behind at her new position. Michigan State’s pair of transfers both come from the conference. Not only that, but they were two of the most productive players in the MAC last year.
Jocelyn Tate follows Fralick to Michigan State from the Falcons, and was one of the most well-rounded players not only in the MAC, but in the country. She ranked in the top 300 nationally in win shares, including 80th in defensive win shares, and she will give Michigan State a boost across the floor immediately.
Lauren Ross played just half of last season after falling with an injury, but she was on pace to having a truly remarkable campaign. Ross is a solid defender, but thrives as a primary scoring option, something the Spartans may need without McDaniel and Ekh.
Freshmen
Fralick is bringing three first-year players into the program, only one of which is a holdover from Merchant’s signees.
That holdover is Bree Robinson, who has international experience playing for Team Canada, while also playing in the states. Robinson appears to be have the most potential on defense, as well as in becoming a leader for the team long term.
Mary Meng was initially a Bowling Green commit, but followed Fralick to Michigan State and gives the Spartans a great interior option for the future. Meng’s high school production is impressive, and her size could get her on the floor earlier than anticipated.
Finally, while Kennedy Blair is a walk-on, that high school production should not be overlooked. That’s a well-rounded skillset to bring to East Lansing, and Fralick could want to see what she brings to the table.
This class was supposed to have a fourth, but four-star Jordan Wood decommitted when Merchant stepped down, ultimately choosing Duke.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - DeeDee Hagemann
G - Moira Joiner
G - Gabby Elliott
G/F - Jocelyn Tate
F - Isaline Alexander
Projected Big Ten Finish: 10th
Last year’s Michigan State team was much better than the record suggested, and if the Spartans basically ran it back with the same lineup and coach, it would be hard to argue them not finishing in the top half this time around.
But Michigan State lost half its players and its head coach, and while the players that did say are solid, and the incoming transfers should make immediate impacts, it feels like the Spartans are due to take a big of a step back in 2023-24.
That is not to say this team has little hope, far from that. Hagemann, Joiner and Elliott is a great backcourt trio, and I’m really hoping to see Hagemann take a leap as the potential top option in the offense. I think Tate’s familiarity with Fralick’s system gives her a great advantage to start right away, while Alexander gets the opportunity to shine as the main rebounder.
There’s also solid depth here still, even with the departures. Lauren Ross would be an outstanding first player off the bench if that ends up being the case, and the blend of Ayrault, Ozment, Hallock and Kimball gives the Spartans some key veterans, as well as potential rising sophomores. The roster also looks like it needs forward help, which Meng could provide instantly.
There’s less upside for Michigan State than a team like Minnesota, but the floor also feels safer, even with a coaching change. Fralick doesn’t appear set to shake things up significantly, and I think that makes sense with how this roster is currently composed. Only five players here are underclassmen, which may spell trouble for the future. But it also means that Fralick can get this group playing well quicker than most first-year coaches.
The Spartans were a very good basketball team disguised as a mediocre one, but they lost a few major players in the offseason. There’s enough here to believe that a full collapse is entirely avoidable, and I don’t think Michigan State will crumble to the bottom of the Big Ten by any means. However, it would take a very impressive coaching boost to make an NCAA Tournament berth feel reasonable either.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Michigan State Athletics
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A previous version (and the one that was emailed out) said that the 15-point loss was in overtime. That was an error from the website I gathered the info, and that game did not actually go to overtime. Apologies.