Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: No. 9 Minnesota
Can cohesiveness lead the Gophers to an NCAA Tournament?
This is the fourth of the ongoing series of previews for all 14 teams in the Big Ten heading into the 2021-22 season. This is the second full preview of one team, and focuses on my projected No. 9 team in the conference.
Here is last week’s preview of No. 10 Rutgers
Rutgers was a team that returns almost no one from what was previously a great roster that went on a tremendous run at the end of the regular season thanks a lot to superb defense. This week’s team is almost the exact opposite of that.
Minnesota
Last year’s record: 7-11 Big Ten | 8-13 Overall
Earlier this century, Minnesota was a consistent fixture in the NCAA Tournament, consistently being a good, not great team that could get into the top five of the conference. That has slowed down as of late, with just two tourney appearances since 2010.
Neither of those appearances have come under Lindsay Whalen, the former Gophers (and Minnesota Lynx) star who took over as head coach in 2018. After a WNIT appearance in her first season, Minnesota has declined each of the next two years, falling below .500 for the first time in Whalen’s tenure in 2020-21.
This was not as much due to the Gophers’ offense, whose 68.7 points per game ranked 10th in the Big Ten but among the top third of teams (110 of 343) nationally. Instead, the defense was more of the problem, allowing 78.7 points per contest, second-most in the conference and fourth most in the country.
Unlike Iowa, the only Big Ten team with a worse scoring defense, who played incredibly fast, leading to lots of points, opponents shot the lights out against the Gophers, a conference-worst 46.2 percent overall. They allowed 1.11 points per scoring attempt and 0.94 points per play, averages that were second-worst and the very worst in the country, respectively, according to Her Hoops Stats.
Hell, teams even shot free throws with remarkable efficiency against Minnesota, something the Gophers can’t really control.
And yet, Minnesota still won seven Big Ten games, staying out of the deep depths of the conference standings. It did that with a roster that was compiled primarily of underclassmen. Of the 13 players on the roster in 2020-21, 10 were freshmen or sophomores.
But, did the transfer portal take its toll on the Gophers? In short: no, not in the slightest.
Justice Ross is a former three-star prospect, but did not see much time amid a pool of other underclassmen last season. So, Minnesota is basically saying to run it back with the exact same core it had last season, something that is hard to find, especially during a year in which the team struggled.
With Minnesota returning < 99 percent of its production from a year ago, that means that all of its top scorers are back, each of which enter only their junior seasons.
If there was one star in the roster, it is guard Jasmine Powell, someone who I expected to take more of a jump last season than she ended up doing. Even with that said, Powell did improve in pretty much every category, just at a less drastic rate than I had thought. Her shooting efficiency is still an issue (36.9 percent overall), but she is one of the best passers in the country and has another year to grow into a leading role.
Sara Scalia has similar efficiency struggles (35.7 percent), but matched Powell’s points per game tally in year two, and was as good as it gets from the free throw line. Kadi Sissoko, who came to Minnesota from France, gave the Gophers some solid scoring at the forward position, a spot where Minnesota could greatly improve at this season.
Veteran guard Gadiva Hubbard was the team’s last double-digit scorer, averaging 11.1 points per contest. Scalia’s 90.5 rate at the line wasn’t even best on the team thanks to Hubbard hitting 35 of 38 (92.1 percent) from the charity stripe, 25th-best in the country. She shot a career-high 43.2 percent overall, but has shot better from deep in prior seasons, meaning there is still room for her to improve in her final season with the team.
The talent is there for Minnesota, and if most of the roster makes even a marginal jump in 2021-22, the door is more than cracked open for a chance to return to the NCAA Tournament. And, the Gophers are also bringing in some help to try and make that happen.
Deja Winters finished ninth in the country last season with 3.1 made threes per game and should immediately, at the last, open up more space on the offense for Powell and Scalia to work with. Inside, Bailey Helgren was a consistent starter in her junior year (2019-20) before opting out the majority of last season. At 6-5, she could be a great interior presence to work with and bolster the defense.
Freshman Alanna Micheaux also could see some time after putting up some monstrous numbers in high school, becoming a Miss Michigan Basketball finalist. The other freshman on the list is guard Maggie Czinano, sister of Iowa standout forward Monika Czinano. She was prolific on both sides of the floor in high school and could be another difference-maker in improving the lackluster defense from a year ago.
So often, teams like this one would have had to rebuild and started over after last season just because of how prominent the transfer portal currently is. Instead, the Gophers have stayed almost completely together and have added a few nice pieces to help get back to their winning ways.
Whalen is only 39 years old, but if year four doesn’t see some big improvements, it could be the end of her tenure with her alma mater. But, there is plenty of reason to think that improvement can and will happen this season for Minnesota.
Next week, it will be the No. 8 ranked team for the Big Ten preview. Before that, I will have a new post on a random topic for you this Thursday. It might even be an album review or something, who’s to say?
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