2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Penn State
Is this truly, actually, *finally* the year for Penn State to rise back up?
I feel like, no matter the sport and no matter the level, there’s always a team that feels like it should be better, and the record just isn’t matching the eye test.
Maybe that team has star power, or plays a fun style, but there’s just something about them that screams “Hey, they should be in the postseason, how are they toward the bottom of the standings right now?”
Anyway, let’s talk about Penn State.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
It’s been a tough stretch of seasons for Penn State, with just one winning record in the past nine campaigns. The program’s last run of real success came under Coquese Washington in 2011-14, when the Nittany Lions won at least 24 games and made the NCAA Tournament in four straight seasons.
That type of stretch used to be the norm for Penn State, a program that was truly excellent in the 1980s, 90s and early 2000s. But, history only means so much, and the recent history has not had that same promise.
This will be Carolyn Kieger’s fifth season as Penn State head coach. It took her three seasons to find true success at Marquette, but the university has been patient with her, and she has continued to improve the Nittany Lions win count each season, even if just by a few wins per year.
Kieger got Penn State to seven wins in 2019-20, then nine, then 11 and most recently to 14 this past season. The Nittany Lions still stayed below .500 and managed just four Big Ten victories, but they are still not regressing under Kieger’s tenure.
This was actually the slowest that Penn State has played under Kieger, and the scoring still managed to improve from the year prior, even if only by 0.2 PPG. The defense allowed 2.8 PPG less, and the team’s overall Her Hoop Stats rating made a huge leap from the 0.2 is was last season.
The defense remains an issue, but the team’s 11.2 steals per game ranked 10th nationally, and helped stifle another problem that Penn State has had the past few years: rebounding.
Penn State teams of the past were the epitome of the classic “fun bad” mantra: The Lions just played outrageously fast, scored a lot of points, and gave up even more than they scored most of the time. Kieger ultimately decided this wasn’t a winning formula, and slowing the pace down, even just barely, yielded somewhat positive results.
That is part of what has made Penn State a team worth watching even in losses. The other, more evident one, is the star power this roster has had, and continues to have.
It’s what makes me believe this really could be the year Kieger breaks the sub-.500 slump.
Here's last year’s Penn State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Eight players from last year’s team are no longer here in 2023-24, six of which are through the transfer portal. The other two — forwards Alexa Williamson and Johnasia Cash — were solid rotational pieces and two of the better rebounders on the roster.
Of the transfers out, Taniyah Thompson is largest loss, and she was a great extra scoring option to have for last season. I also think losing Aicha Dia and Ivane Tensaie after one season in the program is a bummer, as Dia was a true freshman and Tensaie only had one year to adjust to the DI game from JUCO.
Returnees
I waited for a major announcement, a WNBA draft signup but instead, radio silence. There may have been no fuss over it, but the most important piece of Penn State’s last four seasons is back for one more. Makenna Marisa is on Penn State’s 2023-24 roster, and she is the star that has always deserved some postseason action.
Marisa had a slightly down year as a senior production wise, but was still a terrific driver of offense with 17.5 points and 4.2 assists per game. Her shooting percentage fell from 42.8 to 38.5 percent, but she was still named to the All-Big Ten first team for her efforts. I ranked Marisa 20th in the Hoopla 40.
Last year, I compared Marisa’s skillset — primarily making difficult shots and finding her teammates for good looks — to Iowa’s Caitlin Clark, and I still stand by that. Marisa has the ability to lead Penn State to great things, and even these incremental win gains have largely been led by her.
Penn State did get a Big Ten Tournament win last season over Minnesota, and it was Marisa’s 22 points that helped the Nittany Lions stave off a Gopher comeback. She was helped, specifically early on, by Shay Ciezki, who was a revelation in her freshman season.
Ciezki stands just 5-7 and did not display exceptional point guard ability, but it does not matter when you can make shots like she can. A whopping 64 threes made on 41.6-percent efficiency is exceptional, and plays well with Marisa’s skillset. Ciezki had 16 points through three quarters against Minnesota before falling to injury, and they were not easy shots going down.
This is a scoring duo Penn State can rely on heavily. Pair that with two-way guard Leilani Kapinus, and the Nittany Lions have their impressive big three back for another run. Kapinus is one of the best defensive guards in the Big Ten, averaging over three steals per game. She’s also a solid scorer inside who gets to the line (4.2 attempts per contest). It’s a trio of guards that can compete with the best of them in the conference.
The forward play has lacked star power, but Chanaya Pinto and Ali Brigham are both seniors and gave Penn State productive minutes last season. Pinto earned 16 starts last season and is a versatile option at forward, which should be of major use to this roster.
Finally, do not count out Alli Campbell. Her first 10 games of action were solid before going down to a season-ending injury. She is also extremely pesky on defense and should play a solid role off the bench at minimum if healthy.
Transfers
Usually, transfers are lumped in with returnees and the extra section is for the freshmen. Well, Penn State has no new freshmen and has a very, very interesting set of transfers coming in, so we are pivoting.
The Nittany Lions are bringing in six new faces with a wide range of collegiate experience. Two of these players are grad transfers, one is a junior and the other three are sophomores.
Of course, there is likely one name that stands out here, at least if you’ve been a Big Ten Women's Basketball head for a few years.
Ashley. Owusu.
At her best, Owusu is a complete force of nature. A former five-star, top 10 recruit was an immediate difference maker for Brenda Frese in Maryland, and was one of the best players in the country as a sophomore.
She suffered injuries as a junior, but played through them and had another generally excellent season. Then she transferred to Virginia Tech — a team that went to the Final Four — and was completely erased from the rotation by the midway point of the season.
Why did that happen? We haven’t gotten a clear answer there, but Owusu was clearly unhappy, and at the very least, the match just wasn’t right. Now, Owusu is back in the Big Ten, and hopefully can find her elite form once again.
Maybe Owusu is not the player she was in 2020-21, but I’m not ready to say that yet after all the cloudiness from the Virginia Tech situation. Former Maryland teammate and all-around superstar Angel Reese has vocally advocated for Owusu on social media, so I’m optimistic a fresh start can bring a lot out of her.
Joining her in the backcourt is Tay Valladay, who brings a lot of ACC experience and was terrific for Virginia last season. Valladay is another playmaker who is excellent defensively, and could find herself with a major role quickly. Jayla Oden stays in the Big Ten, heading to Happy Valley from Illinois. Oden was a decent scorer off the bench for the rejuvenated Illini team, and should do the same here.
The three second-year players bring a lot of intrigue, and help fill the void of high ceilings that a new freshman class would have brought. Kylie Lavelle has proven the most at the collegiate level of the three, doing very well at Drexel as the top scorer on the team not named Keishana Washington.
Moriah Murray also comes from Drexel, but never played there due to injuries and a transfer to Penn State last fall. She was a dominant scorer in high school, specifically from deep. Murray hit 279 threes and shot 52 percent from deep in her high school career, which is, well that’s pretty good. I’m excited to see how much that can translate.
Finally, Grace Hall spent a year redshirting at the JUCO level, but is back in Division I with the Nittany Lions. She is a former top 100 prospect and showed ability as a shooter in a very brief stint with LSU.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Ashley Owusu
G - Shay Ciezki
G - Makenna Marisa
G - Leilani Kapinus
F - Chanaya Pinto
Projected Big Ten Finish: 9th
Friends, I am choosing to believe in Penn State this year, at least enough for the Nittany Lions to get above .500 for the second time in a decade.
Carolyn Kieger likely knows she has to make some real waves sooner rather than later, and the decision to go all out in the transfer portal has made me think that real waves can happen.
This starting lineup will absolutely consist of Ciezki, Marisa and Kapinus, and the lack of other forward options lends me to thinking Pinto will keep the spot. The fifth starter will really depend on what Ashley Owusu is in Happy Valley, but I’m putting my chips all in and believing in the Owusu Renaissance, specifically with her as a playmaker.
I get it, players underdeveloped on high potential all the time, and it can happen again. But Owusu is, simply put, not just another high-potential player. She was one of the best players in the country two years ago, and she’s back in the conference where that was happening. I think we see her return closer to that form than the Virginia Tech one.
But, even if I’m wrong, Valladay is another terrific guard option with loads of experience, and she’s also coming from the ACC. Oden has two years of Big Ten play under her belt, and then there are also three sophomores that give you plenty to believe in.
I really, really like what Penn State did to get better, and I think all six returnees can also make an impact in getting this team over the top. That said, will these new faces help the major rebounding issue this team already had? I don’t think so, and the interior will generally be a cause of concern all season.
It’s hard to get too excited about a Nittany Lions roster that is solid on paper because, well, that’s often been the case with them recently. But man, this team has a lot to be hopeful for, and there are no more excuses: Penn State should be in a postseason tournament in 2024. Whether that’s the WNIT or the Big Dance, this roster is too good to be sitting at home in March, and I don’t think Makenna Marisa comes back here for a fifth season if she didn’t believe that herself.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Penn State Athletics
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