2024-25 Team Preview: Penn State
Will massive roster turnover stop the Nittany Lions' upward trajectory?
Before jumping into the team preview, a shoutout to Team USA’s 3x3 U23 Nations League team, which played against USA’s Olympic 3x3 roster at All-Star weekend this past Friday. The majority of the six-player roster is made up of current Hoopla players: Christina Dalce (Maryland), Cotie McMahon (Ohio State), Lucy Olsen (Iowa) and Serah Williams (Wisconsin). Morgan Maly (Creighton) and Mikaylah Williams (LSU) are the other two.
The team lost to the Olympic roster 19-16, and now heads to Mexico City for a handful of matchups against Argentina, the Cayman Islands, Mexico and Puerto Rico.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
It was such a rollercoaster season for Penn State in 2023-24, but most of that rollercoaster should be considered a net success. It was the fifth season for head coach Carolyn Kieger, and for the fifth straight year, Kieger and the Nittany Lions improved on their previous win total.
But unlike the first four seasons, where Penn State would improve by 2-3 victories, the Nittany Lions catapulted up eight, going above .500 for the first time since 2016-17.
While the defense only improved mildly, Kieger finally ignited Penn State’s offense. This team was efficient across the floor, moved the ball well and improved on the offensive glass, all while holding the Big Ten’s fastest pace.
There was a real case for Penn State to make the NCAA Tournament, but the Nittany Lions settled for the WBIT where they made a run to the semis. Even being in the tourney picture was a massive improvement, but it did feel like a letdown considering how Penn State’s season started.
At the end of January, the Lions were 16-5 and on a six-game winning streak, a winning streak that coincided with the first six games Ashley Owusu was available for the unit. It felt like Penn State found a new gear with Owusu in the lineup that made the team not only worthy of the NCAA Tournament, but one that might be able to win a few games there too.
But Game 21 would be the last for veteran guard Tay Valladay, who tore her ACL against Minnesota. Her absence was felt as Penn State lost its next six games, a stretch that ultimately caused the Nittany Lions to slip out of the Big Dance picture.
It was a deeply unfortunate circumstance for a team that was truly firing on all cylinders for the first time in years. It becomes even more unfortunate when looking at the uphill battle that Kieger’s team faces this season.
Here's last year’s Penn State roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
A team that won 22 games the year before should not be second to last in any conference preview. It doesn’t feel right and I am well aware of that. But the Big Ten is absolutely diabolical right now with talent at every level, and some teams that finished lower in the conference have really exciting core pieces to build around.
Departures
Penn State had a core, and that core is gone. It’s not diminished, it’s not adjusting, it’s completely vanished.
Seven players averaged 16+ minutes per game last season. All seven of those players are no longer in State College. As a team, the Nittany Lions scored 2,894 points, and 2,401 of those points either graduated, went to the draft or entered the transfer portal. That’s 83% of Penn State’s offense.
Makenna Marisa has been the backbone of this program her whole tenure, and it was great to see her get rewarded with some postseason play for that last season. Her skillset will be missed greatly, even as Penn State didn’t have to rely on her as severely with Ashley Owusu in the picture.
Speaking of, Owusu’s time with Penn State was short but extremely impactful. The offense felt like it ran through her when she was on the floor, and she was mostly up to the task of the high volume. After a tumultuous few seasons, I loved seeing some of that Maryland Owusu that was such a menace as an underclassmen.
Shay Ciezki had two extremely promising seasons for the Lions and will now likely be a terror to them as an opponent in Bloomington. She is a dangerous scorer who should thrive with shooters around her at Indiana. Leilani Kapinus’ transfer may not directly hurt them like Ciezki’s in-conference move does, but losing such a two-way talent is a huge blow. Kapinus has always been a defensive demon, but she found her three-point shot last season and could be in for a big year at Vanderbilt if that stays up.
Each and every one of those pieces is a big loss, and there’s still more big losses to mention. As said, Valladay’s collegiate career ended with that torn ACL. She was another solid defender who was a knockout shooter that was playing her best basketball before the injury. Ali Brigham started all 35 games, shot nearly 60 percent from the field and was a key reason for Penn State’s rebounding improvements. Kylie Lavelle shot 61.9% from the field and 57.1% from deep in her first year of Big Ten play.
It’s a lot, and it means Penn State will have to do a lot to not lose the momentum it finally got after a handful of years working its way back up.
Returnees
The four players who are back from last year’s roster should be in good positions to have expanded roles, even with the large list of players on their way in (which we will get to in a moment). Kieger’s use of the entire roster last season — with every player getting at least 20 games and 8 minutes per contest — should be a big plus for these four who were toward the back of the rotation.
Alli Campbell and Jayla Oden each saw a little over 15 minutes per game last season and were each solid deep-ball shooters on lower volume. Moriah Murray also intrigues with her three-point shooting, but Murray’s true freshman season showed me she is willing to SHOOT, with those 10.6 three attempts per 40 minutes ranking 33rd among all players nationally.
I’ve previously listed Oden as someone I believe can be a big riser this season, and the situation of Penn State’s roster is why. Oden is a very solid player who has loads of Big Ten experience on two teams in this conference. The first of those teams was Illinois, who experienced significant roster turnover during Oden’s tenure. I think she will be mentally prepared for whatever role she’s in for 24-25.
Grace Hall did not see significant action in her first season with the Nittany Lions, but she’s a former Top 100 prospect with a real opportunity to shine through this time around if she impresses this offseason.
Incoming Players
There are nine new players to patch up Penn State’s roster this season, and I believe it is the right mix of veteran pieces and hopeful talent for Kieger to work with.
Gabby Elliott has had injury misfortune at Michigan State, but has proven to be a very capable player in her limited action there, both as a scorer and defender. If she’s healthy, I think she can be a reliable starter for this team. Tamera Johnson brings four years and 77 starts of experience at Louisiana to the picture and, like Elliott, is a pesky rebounder and defender for opponents to deal with.
Vitoria Santana is an interesting add by the Lions, but she, and notice the pattern here, has also shown a knack for rebounding on both sides of the ball while being tenacious as an on-ball defender.
The addition of Gracie Merkle from Bellarmine is the most exciting thing about this current Penn State roster, in my opinion.
Yes, Bellarmine is not in an elite conference. Yes, Merkle missed the entirety of last season with an injury. Those are important things to consider, but so is averaging 14.6 PPG, 10.6 RPG and 2.1 BPG on 70.1-percent shooting as a true freshman. She was one of the most impactful players in the country on both sides of the floor in her lone collegiate season, and now the runway is cleared for Kieger to scheme a game plan around a talent like her.
The competition ramp-up will take some adjusting I’m sure — Merkle’s games against tougher competition like LSU, Louisville or Florida Gulf Coast were not her strongest — but her supporting cast will be stronger as well, and I expect Penn State to really hone in on getting the best out of the sophomore’s skillset.
Joining the transfers are five new freshmen, many of which seem to check three similar boxes of scorers, rebounders and on-ball defenders. Jill Jekot’s early enrollment gives her a leg up in finding a larger rotation spot automatically, and Cam Rust appears to have the most hype coming into the program, so I’d expect to see her get involved as the Nittany Lions figure out their lineups.
Shae Steele and Talayah Walker both scored well in high school and will get a great chance to prove themselves as reliable scorers early on. Penn State needs to fill holes everywhere, including with who will be their top scoring options. I would not be surprised if one or two of these freshmen find themselves in high-volume roles very quickly.
Outlook
Projected Starters
Jayla Oden - G
Moriah Murray - G
Alli Campbell - G
Cam Rust - F
Gracie Merkle - C
Projected Big Ten Finish: 17th
Penn State just had its best season in at least seven years, and unfortunately it is an extremely steep uphill battle to stay at that level for another season. It was always going to be that way with Marisa’s departure, but losing Owusu, Kapinus and Ciezki along with her means that Kieger is more or less building this roster from the ground up in 24-25.
With that in mind, I have to think the Nittany Lions are keeping an eye on the future at least a bit this season, which is why I have Rust and Merkle starting immediately. Rust could be beaten out by Ariana Williams or another first-year player, but the forward position had a hole and getting early minutes could help Penn State in the long term. Merkle should be starting if healthy though, and I want the offense to at least somewhat revolve around what she brings to the table.
Oden, Murray and Campbell makes for a nice, stable backcourt to pair with the two new faces. Murray’s a shooter, and both Campbell and Oden also can hit the deep ball, so it should help the spacing while Merkle gets involved inside. Elliott and Johnson could also become starters out of the portal, but I think both will at least provide important depth.
So, yes, I do think that there’s going to be a mighty fall in wins from the highs the Lions saw last year, but that’s more the name of the game than anything this program did wrong. Key stars left, either naturally or for greener pastures, but it wasn’t such a large fallout through the portal that I have a specific concern about it. Instead, Kieger and co. will simply have to find a way to win with this new group, and I think there are plenty of pieces here to make something interesting work.
Photo Credit: Bellarmine Athletics
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