2023-24 Big Ten Women's Basketball Preview: Purdue
With a flock of freshmen joining the same core, can the Boilermakers return to the NCAA Tournament?
While this is technically the end of the first half of the previews, this week feels like the start of a new level of expectation.
I do think Penn State — last week’s team preview — is a team that has the talent to possibly reach the NCAA Tournament, but just getting above .500 would still be a successful year in Happy Valley.
These next eight teams should, and likely do, have the expectation of both making the NCAA Tournament and making some noise once they get there. Most of these teams made the tournament last year and all of them have rosters worth getting excited about.
Last Week’s Preview:
Overview
There was a time the Big Ten ran through Purdue. The Boilermakers were national champions in 1999, runner-ups in 2001 and won the conference either in the regular season or Big Ten Tournament on a handful of occasions throughout the 90s and 2000s.
While there was not a full-on collapse from there, Purdue is not in the same place it was under Lin Dunn, Carolyn Peck or Kristy Curry. That being said, the first two years under head coach Katie Geralds have shown a lot of promise that the Boilermakers could get back there in the near future.
Geralds took over a team that went 7-16 from long-time head coach Sharon Versyp, who left a year earlier than planned due to allegations of verbally attacking players and bullying a member of the coaching staff. The vibes were not in a good place, but Geralds immediately brought Purdue back above .500 in year one, then got them into the NCAA Tournament play-ins with 19 wins.
The Boilermakers go against the grain of most of their Big Ten counterparts, opting to slow the pace down and find the right looks. This has majorly worked, as Purdue shot efficiently and had a high assist total (15.8 APG, 31st nationally) while minimizing turnovers (1.03 assist-to-turnover ration, 67th nationally).
By Big Ten standards, the Boilermakers were also great defensively, allowing 80+ points just three times, all to ranked opponents (Indiana, Iowa, Michigan). The team was pesky enough to win on the road against Illinois and Ohio State in back-to-back games, but their best effort on defense may have come in the team’s final quarter of the season.
Down 12 entering the fourth quarter against St. John’s in the play-in, Purdue allowed just six points the rest of the way. The Boilermakers cut the deficit to two, but came up just short in a 66-64 defeat.
To even be here after the lows of 2020-21 is a great sign of progress for Geralds, and there’s not much to signal the momentum slowing down any time soon.
Here's last year’s Purdue roster, sorted by Her Hoop Stats win shares:
Departures
Eight players are gone from last year’s team, four of which are through the transfer portal. Much like with Penn State, this is a number that is not as bad as it may seem.
Thanks to a solid run of health, Purdue almost strictly used its core of nine players throughout the season, with the rest of the roster combining to play 39 total minutes. Addison Potts and Lilly Stoddard were both freshmen who couldn’t get on the floor, and both appear to be set to exit. That could hurt down the line, but for the time being, the majority of the main core has stayed in tact.
I don’t think Lasha Petree had any more eligibility after playing a fifth season, but she was an excellent scorer and opted to take a shot in the WNBA Draft regardless. Key rotational pieces Cassidy Hardin and Rickie Woltman graduated. Finally, Ava Learn has been a fascinating underclassmen who excels in efficiency, but the volume didn't increase in year two, and she is now off to Murray State.
Returnees and Transfers
Five of Purdue’s top seven players from last season are returning, including a trio of players that are doing so by using their free COVID eligibility year. Those three — Jeanae Terry, Abbey Ellis and Caitlyn Harper — will lead this Boilermakers roster as they begin to incorporate a lot of fresh faces.
Terry is a one-of-a-kind player. What she lacks in scoring prowess, she more than makes up for with a great knack for finding open players and a relentless motor that helps her both be an outrageously pesky defender and a terrific rebounder. She fits perfectly for what Purdue needs from her.
To make up for the shooting side is Ellis, who started on the bench last season before proving more than worthy of moving into the starting rotation. Ellis’ shooting splits were tremendous, and she is one of the best free throw shooters in the country. I hope to see her get more volume, but she is someone Purdue can often rely on to hit a tough shot late in the shot clock.
Rounding out the veteran trio is Harper, a sixth-year who came over from Cal Baptist and made a strong impact right away. She is a great scorer inside and should get more accustomed to Big Ten play in year two here, which should help her rebounding (7.2 RPG in 2020-21) and blocking (1.6 BPG in 2021-22) numbers return to old form.
Madison Layden and Jayla Smith also return from last year’s team, and both will likely see significant roles once again. Layden brings a lot to the table as a guard, and it feels like she is so close to unlocking some star potential. She hits nearly 90 percent of her free throws and shot 40.5 percent from deep as a freshman, but that number dipped to 27.4 percent last year. If she can meet those numbers in the middle at her current volume, that could lead to a major scoring boost.
Smith is the youngest returnee as a junior, and she proved to be a very capable scorer off the bench last season. Her numbers improved across the board from year one to two, even with only a marginal minutes boost, all great signs that she could play a big part this season.
Of Purdue’s five returning players, only two can come back for another season, and one of those two is also a senior. With that in mind, Katie Geralds went out and got two transfers with at least three years of eligibility remaining.
The first is Alaina Harper, sister of Caitlyn, who showed some impressive potential in limited action at Grand Canyon. The other is Mila Reynolds, who saw action in a decent amount of games for Maryland, but for very brief stints which did not allow her to make much of an impact.
The big thing to note with Reynolds is her ceiling: she was a four-star, top 60 recruit in the 2022 class, according to ESPN. Her scoring and rebounding ability were very impressive in high school, and she should get an expanded role to see that potential come to fruition on a new team.
Freshmen
You know what else helps a returning roster of vets? How about six incoming freshmen, making up one of the most exciting classes in the Big Ten.
Two of these first-year players — McKenna Layden and Amiyah Reynolds — are sisters to Madison Layden and Mila Reynolds, meaning that six of Purdue’s 13 current players have a sister on the roster. I don’t know what that means for quality of roster, but hey, it’s a cool stat.
Mila Reynolds was the big get in this massive haul, and her commitment also only came a few months ago. Amiyah and Mila both decided to head to Purdue together back in May, a massive snag for Geralds and co. Both were very highly rated prospects and could be the foundation of Purdue’s build for years to come.
They are far from being alone in the rebuild. Rashunda Jones and Mary Ashley Stevenson also were top 100 prospects that filled the box score in high school. Jones has high two-way potential at guard, while Stevenson dominated the interior.
Those skillsets appear to match well with both McKenna Layden and Emily Monson, a pair of guards who hit over 40 percent of their threes on solid volume. Purdue was a top 100 three-point-shooting team last year, but could build an identity on the perimeter by adding this talent with Ellis.
Finally, Sophie Swanson was a major scorer that made solid impact on defense and was a former Illinois Ms. Basketball winner. She had her season ended to injury as a senior, but if she’s healthy, she’s another supremely talented shot maker to add to this new arsenal of weapons.
Outlook
Projected Starters
G - Jeanae Terry
G - Abbey Ellis
G - Madison Layden
F - Mila Reynolds
F - Caitlyn Harper
Projected Big Ten Finish: 8th
I really love this Purdue team, and if the Big Ten didn’t feel so deep with talented, I would have no problems putting them higher than this.
The way Katie Geralds has built this program back from the ashes has been excellent so far, and this offseason was one of her best moves yet. To retain three players free to leave with degrees while also adding eight underclassmen with loads of potential is the perfect way to stay competitive and build toward the future.
With Terry back, Purdue is free to play a lot like it did last year, disrupting the flow of opponents while taking the right shots. If any of the freshmen show flashes earlier than expected, the scoring potential this roster has is worlds ahead of last year’s.
Jayla Smith may be the easy pick to take the one starting spot most likely up for grabs, but I think her scoring off the bench is more useful. That would lead me to picking Mila Reynolds as the starter, someone who can add some size and work it inside.
An interior presence is a bit of a concern for me with this team, but Terry’s rebounding ability at guard helps take some of that burden away. I think Caitlyn Harper might also have a truly excellent second year with the Boilermakers.
Yes, I have Purdue eighth, but not because of any real gripes I have here. The eight new faces may take some time to develop, but the returning core makes that transition easier. It could lead to a similar amount of wins to last year’s group, but the future looks more bright than it has in a long time for this program.
The expectation should be for Purdue to make the Field of 64, not just 68, and to see what lies ahead after Terry, Ellis and Harper depart. Geralds has given me no reason to doubt the process in West Lafayette thus far.
Photo Credit: Courtesy of Purdue Athletics
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