The Final Four Window Is Now
NCAA Tournament predictions for the seven Big Ten teams dancing
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Selection Sunday has come and gone, and once again, half of the Big Ten was represented in the NCAA Tournament field.
The conference’s seven teams was only outdone by the ACC’s eight, but the Big Ten’s talent was clear from a nation view, as three of its teams were given top two seeds.
Indiana, unsurprisingly, is a No. 1 seed in what I would argue is the bracket’s most winnable region, as South Carolina was given Maryland as its No. 2 seed. Iowa, despite many projections giving it a top four spot, was given the top 2 seed, with Stanford earning that last No. 1.
These three are the Big Ten’s best bets for the conference’s first Final Four team since 2015, when the Terps made it before falling to UConn at the height of the Huskies power. Maryland would have to go through the undefeated, defending national champ Gamecocks to do so, but the Hawkeyes and Hoosiers have clearer, more reasonable routes to get the job done.
But, there are more than three Big Ten teams in the dance, and each of these teams has a chance to win some games in this tournament. Here’s a look at each of those teams, and how far I expect them to get.
First Four
No. 11 Illinois vs. No. 11 Mississippi State
Two Big Ten teams ended up in the Last Four In section of the bracket, and will play to get into the Round of 64. One of those teams was not surprising. Illinois was.
The Illini won 22 games after playing in one of the nation’s toughest conferences, picked up a marquee win over Iowa and have just a few bad losses on the résumé, and their reward is having to play a talented Mississippi State team to even get a chance to advance.
This is cruel, but that 33-point home loss to Nebraska may have been the decider here. Still, Illinois is here for the first time since 2003, a major feat for first-year head coach Shauna Green.
This Mississippi State matchup is a good one, and Her Hoop Stats is giving the slight edge to the Bulldogs. Both of these teams started the years red hot, and come into this cooled off: Illinois is 9-7 in its last 16 games, and Mississippi State is 8-8.
Both teams are also similar in style of play: the Bulldogs have a great interior scorer in Jessika Carter (14.8 PPG, 7.7 RPG), helped out by solid three-point shooters Ahlana Smith (9.7 PPG, 42.6 3PT%) and Jerkaila Jordan (11.9 PPG, 40.5 3PT%). Illinois has four players with at least 32 threes made, and relies on Kendall Bostic (10.5 PPG, 9.9 RPG) on the interior.
Mississippi State has been the better defensive team this season, but both teams have excelled at slowing down the three ball. Because of that, the Bostic-Carter matchup inside could be the decider. I think this game is going to live up to the even-seeding billing and come down to the wire. I’ll give the Illini a slight edge, as the Bulldogs’ scoring has slowed down in recent weeks.
The winner of that game will play 6-seed Creighton. This is a winnable matchup for either team, but the Bluejays are extremely well rounded and are great at avoiding turnovers. I’ll hedge my bets and say the Illini’s run ends here.
Prediction: Round of 64
No. 11 Purdue vs. No. 11 St. John’s
As said above, Illinois’ placement here was a surprise, but Purdue’s was to be expected. The Boilermakers just barely survived against Wisconsin in the Big Ten Tournament, put up a fight against Iowa, and it was enough to skate into the dance.
This matchup is going to be all kinds of gross. Purdue played slow for Big Ten standards, St. John’s played slow by snail standards, ranking 346th nationally in average pace.
The Red Storm are led by a pair of veteran guards: Jayla Everett (15.8 PPG) and Kadaja Bailey (13.3 PPG), both of which are very efficient from deep. This team started the year 13-0, cooled off, but then picked up a massive win over UConn to catapult themselves into the tournament.
Purdue is slightly favored by Her Hoop Stats, and I think will have the advantage in a slowed down game where every possession is emphasized. The Boilermakers were at their best when able to slow down the Big Ten’s high-powered attacks, and it’s going to happen here regardless. Jeanae Terry’s defensive expertise should also come in huge against Everett and Bailey.
The winner of this game plays North Carolina, a faster paced team that thrives more on defense than offense. This feels like a winnable matchup for the Boilermakers, and the Tar Heels did go 0-2 against Big Ten competition this season. Based on the matchups in front of them, I truly think Purdue can reach the Round of 32 here. That would likely lead to an Ohio State matchup, a team the Boilermakers beat once, but this time I’d give the edge to the Buckeyes.
Prediction: Round of 32
Greenville 1 Region
No. 2 Maryland vs. No. 15 Holy Cross
A 2 seed for Maryland is fair. Being in the South Carolina region is not.
The Terps have not lost to a team outside of the top five since Dec. 4, and will be a tough out anywhere earlier than the Elite Eight because of that.
Holy Cross has won six straight entering the Tournament, but lacks the firepower to be able to handle Maryland’s versatile scoring. The next matchup would be Arizona or West Virginia, two teams that have had flashes of high play, but haven’t put it together consistently.
The Wildcats are just two years removed from a national championship game run, but come into this one on a three-game losing streak. West Virginia has scrapped and clawed itself here after a tough Big 12 slate, but struggles on the glass and is far outmatched as shooters, so Maryland should have the advantage against either team here.
A matchup against Notre Dame in the Sweet 16 would be outstanding. These two went blow for blow early in the season, and the game ended on a Diamond Miller buzzer beater where she shushed the opposing crowd. The health of star Olivia Miles could be the difference maker if this rematch happens, but the Terps won on the road the first time around and have been a better team since, so I have them winning it once again.
Is a win over South Carolina impossible? No, but it’s hard to see the path. The Gamecocks beat the Terps on the road by 25, and while Maryland has improved dramatically since, I don’t know if it has an answer for Aliyah Boston inside.
Prediction: Elite Eight
Greenville 2 Region
No. 6 Michigan vs. No. 11 UNLV
Michigan has been the Big Ten’s gatekeeper all season, refusing to earn even a single win over a team ranked higher in the conference standings. But, the Wolverines have proven capable of making runs and have a win over Baylor this season.
Their first matchup is against a 30-2 UNLV team without a loss this calendar year. The Rebels shoot at an excellent clip and are outstanding rebounders, both thanks largely to star Desi-Rae Young (18.0 PPG, 10.2 RPG, 60.0 FG%). Even on a 22-game win streak, UNLV has experience in close games, winning eight of those 22 by single digits.
This is an upset game waiting to happen, but I think Emily Kiser’s defensive prowess gets the job done here. That would likely lead to a matchup against the Hoopla villains: LSU. This exact scenario happened last year with Ohio State, and the Buckeyes prevailed. But this LSU team has Angel Reese and a variety of extra weapons.
I think Michigan has a real chance against the Tigers, especially because the Tigers have barely beaten good teams all year. Still, neither has the Wolverines, so I will pick LSU to just barely survive here, costing Michigan another trip to the Sweet 16. I hope I’m wrong though.
Prediction: Round of 32
No. 1 Indiana vs. No. 16 Tennessee Tech/Monmouth
Indiana has to make the Final Four. It has to.
The first two matchups should be wins by sizable margins, even against some major conference teams in the 8-9. Villanova, Washington State or, possibly, Florida Gulf Coast, could be waiting in the Sweet 16. The Cougars have went on an insane run to get here, but it is hard to keep that momentum up, and I think Villanova has the star to make it past either potential matchup.
That star is Maddy Siegrist, the versatile forward and National Player of the Year contender, who has truly unbelievable numbers this season: 28.9 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 51.8 FG%, 37.3 3PT%. This team lives or dies by what Siegrist can do, and she could give Indiana, or anyone, real trouble.
But having Mackenzie Holmes on the interior, as well as multiple guards with the length required to slow Siegrist down, should get Indiana to the Elite Eight. There, LSU or Utah would be the ones most likely to be waiting for them.
The Utes are an outstanding offensive team who also have a major star: Alissa Pili (20.3 PPG, 58.5 FG%). I won’t get cocky, but I think Indiana wins over LSU without much hesitation from me, but Utah has been excellent all year and has played with the best of the Pac-12.
Still, Indiana’s depth, versatility and star power will give it an advantage over either of these teams. This is a Final Four level team, and I think it gets there. I also think it gets further. Whether it be Virginia Tech or UConn or someone else, I think Indiana is a better team than anyone in that Seattle region. Obviously the Huskies are good and are even better with Azzi Fudd back, but I think the lack of depth on that team gives Indiana more than a chance to win.
I have Indiana in the final, likely losing to South Carolina, but I think it’s more of a battle than many would give them credit for right now. This Hoosiers team is special, and I think that loss to Ohio State will only end up being a positive for them as something to learn from.
Prediction: Runner-up
Seattle 3 Region
No. 3 Ohio State vs. No. 14 James Madison
Ohio State is volatile right now, and it’s hard to know what to expect from the Buckeyes game to game.
Beating James Madison shouldn’t be an issue, but a defensive battle against North Carolina, St. John’s or Purdue would be a tough challenge. I have Purdue making it, but Ohio State getting to the Sweet 16 regardless. The development of Cotie McMahon and return of Jacy Sheldon gives me faith the Buckeyes can get by.
This would, in all likelihood, lead to a matchup against UConn in the Sweet 16. This would be fun for plenty of reasons, but the big one being that it’s a matchup against former Buckeye Dorka Juhasz, a player Ohio State could really use with its problems inside.
I’d be curious to see how the Huskies do against Ohio State’s press, but I’ll be honest, I don’t have a lot of hope in the Buckeyes winning here if they make it this far. UConn is too efficient and has too many weapons, even on a small bench, to deal with. Maybe Taylor Mikesell gets hot or McMahon makes some big plays, but I think the run would end here for Ohio State.
Prediction: Sweet 16
Seattle 4 Region
No. 2 Iowa vs. No. 15 Southeastern Louisiana
Can Iowa avoid the bad game that plagued them last season?
For the second season in a row, the Hawkeyes come in as Big Ten champs and a No. 2 seed. Last year, it all ended with an upset loss in the Round of 32.
I’m not as worried about a Round of 32 loss with this group. The options are a Florida State team that is also high-flying, but less dominant, or a Georgia team that doesn’t quite score enough to be a major threat. Iowa could get ice cold and falter, but that feels extremely unlikely before the second weekend.
The world needs an Iowa-Duke matchup so, so bad. The Hawkeyes have the No. 1 offense in the nation, the Blue Devils have the No. 1 defense in the nation. It would be such a battle of extremes that I have a hard time saying what would happen, and it could truly depend on if Caitlin Clark’s unguardable threes are falling or bricking on that day.
Clark’s playmaking and ability to impact the game past those threes is why she’s taken a leap in play this year, and I think those additions can help Iowa make it through a tough Duke team if that matchup happens. This could lead to a banger matchup against Stanford to see who deserved the No. 1 seed in the region.
The Cardinal is beatable this year, but their strengths in rebounding and defense are tough for Iowa to deal with. Getting star Cameron Brink (14.9 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 3.4 BPG) into foul trouble could be the key, because she will have a mismatch offensively against Monika Czinano.
Iowa is a well-rounded team, and would need more than Clark to get past Stanford. Gabbie Marshall’s recent play is a good sign that this would be possible. Stanford is beatable, and it may have to come from behind the arc, which is Iowa’s specialty. I thought the Hawkeyes deserved the 1 seed, so I will pick them to be the Big Ten’s second Final Four team here. It would be a real feat for this conference, but it’s absolutely attainable.
South Carolina likely looms next, and while threes can always go in for Iowa, the Gamecocks have more weapons to contain that, and Boston is an even worse mismatch inside.
Prediction: Final Four
Overall Thoughts
This year’s NCAA Tournament should show off just how much talent women’s college basketball has to offer now compared to even a few years ago.
Each year, the parity throughout the country grows stronger and stronger, and it should lead to more upsets, which leads to more fun if you ask me. South Carolina is the clear and obvious No. 1, but I don’t think it’s a lock that this team wins it all. And, even if the Gamecocks repeat, every team under them is in a real battle to see who can join South Carolina at the top, including a trio of Big Ten teams.
This tournament should be a blast, and I think the Big Ten is going to have a great showing. Here are my checklist items that I am hoping to see from the conference:
2-0 in the First Four
Four Sweet 16 teams
One Final Four team
I picked two Final Four teams, but will be excited if we at least get one. That will be a huge step for this conference, and will show the nation what everyone reading this newsletter should already know about how good the basketball is in the Big Ten.
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